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Post by papaof2 on Mar 9, 2020 21:11:22 GMT -6
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Post by 9idrr on Mar 9, 2020 21:16:11 GMT -6
Yeah, gotta get a smog check on my '89 Festiva on Wednesday afternoon. May drop in on Walgreens while in town. Last time I was there I got their house brand AAA batteries in the sixteen pack, BOGO free. Not sure yet what else I'll try to pick up, but I'll bet my dearly beloved will have a list for me. Fortunately, no reported cases of the virus in this county so far. Closest I've noticed is well South of here, or some miles NW, towards the coast. As always, sir, I'm glad to read your rants.
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Post by papaof2 on Mar 10, 2020 0:12:59 GMT -6
We have cases in nearby counties and in some more distant ones. I think the state's last count (confirmed and presumptive) was 14 but that was a few hours ago so I'm sure it could be higher.
We are set to self-isolate and without utilities if needed (as soon as the 55 gallon barrel is in the basement - hopefully Tuesday afternoon, between rain showers). We can cook with natural gas if it's on or Coleman fuel or propane (have both burners) and I have the Coleman camp stove oven so we could bake as well.
I do know where the 12 volt fuse panel is (ten 5 amp fuses, with indicators) so running power for the pump on that 55 gallon barrel won't be difficult except for taking out and replacing the ceiling tiles in the basement. Still working all that out in my head but I think I know where everything will be placed and how the hose will be run up to the main level. I have a couple of demand pumps so I can put some type of faucet on the kitchen of the hose and just turn the water on and off as needed. The extra fuses will be used for some 12 volt lighting in the basement and maybe on the main level. The basement is certain as I can get to everything in the area I want 12 volt lighting. The main level will take more thought (and effort, to keep it "pretty"). I'm not looking for reading lights in multiple rooms but it would be nice to have nightlights in a couple of places and some worklights in the kitchen that don't need the inverter running to power them.
It's late again and there's a 10AM event that requires my presence so probably less than 6 hours of sleep again. Maybe a nap after the water barrel is in place?
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Post by papaof2 on Mar 10, 2020 19:56:10 GMT -6
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Post by papaof2 on Mar 10, 2020 23:57:45 GMT -6
Want some scary reading? How about a numerical analysis of the growth rate of US Covid-19 infections if they parallel those in other countries? The author uses an infection doubling rate of 6 days and, based on the numbers from the scmp.com graphics, that might be on the low side. I need to put all those graphics together and see how perhaps Italy's counts changed. Remember that I posted about people from China searching Indonesia for surgical masks? It's not that far-fetched that people from the US will be out searching for masks, with China being the main producer of the masks AND the raw materials used in their production. It's all in the article. www.zerohedge.com/health/all-hospital-beds-us-will-be-filled-coronavirus-patients-about-may-8th-according-analysis====== Shuffling some things in the basement today, I came across two more boxes of N95 masks. 40 masks at the Amazon price of $20 each gives me another $800 worth of masks. If things get as bad as the above article predicts, those masks might be priceless. Certainly the 20lb bag of rice in the freezer (there for 4 days to ensure any insects are killed) would be priceless after a couple months of supply chain disruption. (If one infected over-the-road trucker with no symptoms infects 1/4 the drivers in St. Louis, how many will those drivers infect and in what locations?) Been nice if we could have purchased my wife's grandparents' farm when he died and she was unable to care for herself but that was when we still had kids in high school and one of them was almost ready for college, plus we were still paying on the house we were living in and couldn't take on another loan. That property was split, with the house and a couple acres on one side of the road and the barn and big farming acreage on the other side. The house side had a big (1/2 acre+) garden which could have fed two people well. Electric pump in the well under the back porch, long skinny "bucket" on a windlass-pulled rope for the little wellhouse out front. Electric cooking. Propane heat (so propane cooking simple to change to) plus a pot bellied stove for heat. Septic tank. Lots of space for solar panels. Outhouse. That would have been a good place to retire to. And an even better place to get away from the crazy we may be about to experience. We talked about it but just couldn't take on that much debt. In hindsight, maybe sold some of the stock in my retirement fund to cover much of the cost? Hindsight is always 20/20.
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Post by brucearmstrong65 on Mar 11, 2020 8:03:46 GMT -6
Hindsight is always 20/20. I was just thinking about woulda/coulda/shoulda. I bought an iPod Touch around Thanksgiving for myself - and haven't used it since. I'd like to have the money from that right now. Same with upgrading my Samsung tablet late last year. The old one was/is working fine. The money used on that would've been useful, if for no other reason than to have a little more in savings. That being said, we're pretty well set, at least for several weeks if not months. A few things I'd like to increase our supply of - rice, beans, masks (fat chance on the last one, I know) - but otherwise, pretty good. If COVID-19 turns out to be a nothingburger (too late, IMHO), everything I've bought/got will last for quite a while.
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Post by papaof2 on Mar 11, 2020 13:01:36 GMT -6
Hindsight is always 20/20. I was just thinking about woulda/coulda/shoulda. I bought an iPod Touch around Thanksgiving for myself - and haven't used it since. I'd like to have the money from that right now. Same with upgrading my Samsung tablet late last year. The old one was/is working fine. The money used on that would've been useful, if for no other reason than to have a little more in savings. That being said, we're pretty well set, at least for several weeks if not months. A few things I'd like to increase our supply of - rice, beans, masks (fat chance on the last one, I know) - but otherwise, pretty good. If COVID-19 turns out to be a nothingburger (too late, IMHO), everything I've bought/got will last for quite a while. I agree on the unlikelihood of it being a nothingburger. The Zero Hedge article I posted a link to yesterday: www.zerohedge.com/health/all-hospital-beds-us-will-be-filled-coronavirus-patients-about-may-8th-according-analysisclaims 6 days for the number of infections to double but in reviewing the static images of the SCMP graphic, I've seen that happen in less than 6 days in several places. Once this thing was unleashed, the only stopping point may be when the enough of the potential host population has been even mildly infected to reduce the easy transmission to the next never-infected host. That's a matter of probably several months. Once Covid-19 burns its way through most of the population, things would have an opportunity to get back to something close to November's "normal" (before we heard of coronavirus) but perhaps with changes in society such as shaking hands is an anachronism and instead we rub elbows or bump gloved fists :-( I thought I had posted a link to Michael Osterholm talking about Covid-19 but I'll post it here in case I didn't: www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZFhjMQrVts Calm, controlled voice, probably the same tone and expression as an oncologist when telling a patient "You waited too long. We can keep you comfortable but chemo, radiation and surgery combined can't cure you." CNBC and CNN both have excerpts online.
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Post by papaof2 on Mar 11, 2020 14:19:32 GMT -6
You can find useful information in many places. In a PDF published by DHL: www.logistics.dhl/content/dam/dhl/global/dhl-global-forwarding/documents/pdf/glo-dgf-ocean-market-update.pdfIn the section on shipping capacity (TEU = Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit or a 20 foot container): China’s extended Lunar New Year holidays and the COVID-19 outbreak have seen demand for cargo space out of China reach a record low in February. Carriers have cancelled an unprecedented number of sailings from Asia in the last month. A survey of the Asia – North Europe services shows that 33 sailings have been cancelled in the last 4 weeks, meaning that 46% of scheduled departures on the route were dropped. Over the past three weeks, some 30% to 60% of weekly outbound capacity has been withdrawn from the Asia – Europe and Transpacific trade, as well as from intra-regional routes. The re-opening of factories in China now sees demand gradually returning, but this cargo volume recovery is expected to take a few weeks. Until ‘normal’ volumes are reached, carriers thus continue to selectively implement blank sailings until the end of March. Despite the many void sailings, capacity utilization on ships departing from Asia remains relatively low. Capacity constraints could begin to affect the backhaul routes in the coming weeks, as outbound capacity from Europe and the United States will be limited as a result of the current cancelled sailings from Asia. The record number of cancelled sailings out of China has seen containership inactivity surge. As at 17 February, the inactive fleet capacity reached a massive 2.04 MTEU. Currently the inactive capacity accounts for 8.8% of the global containership fleet. The number of containerships that are currently out of action due to scrubber retrofits has increased in the last three weeks to reach a new high of 111 units for 1.02 MTEU on 21 February. Delays at various Chinese yards due to the COVID-19 outbreak have resulted in extended yard stays for the vast majority of containerships undergoing retrofits in China. Chinese yards account for over 83% of all scrubber installations so far, and 77% of ongoing installations. According to Alphaliner’s latest vessel count, 83 ships are currently undergoing retrofits in China. The extended Lunar New Year holidays have not slowed the steady stream of ships that come into Chinese yards, with 25 container vessels entering the docks since 1 February, compared to 15 units that departed after completing their retrofits in the same period. At least 10 more containerships are still waiting in the queue to enter various Chinese yards. MSC currently has 33 ships that undergo scrubber retrofits, the highest number among all carriers. This is followed by Maersk with 15 ships, while COSCO and Evergreen are tied in third place at 7 ships each. Retrofits on MSC Ships have been severely delayed and 7 of the carrier’s vessels have clocked over 100 days at various Chinese yards. ====== Production in China has slowed due to Covid-19 - whether people not able to work or factories closed to prevent exposure. Many container ships are in Chinese shipyards for updates. Those ships are going into the shipyards faster than they are coming out. There is a shortage of container shipping. Ships not coming to the US (canceled sailings) mean there will be a shortage of container shipping for US shipments going to Asia. Chinese ships have the largest total TEU capacity of any nation. Any slowdown there will affect shipping to/from many nations. Check you family's clothing for place of manufacture. Odds are that much of it is NOT made in the US. The L.L.Bean trousers I wore yesterday were made in Indonesia and the L.L.Bean shirt was made in Malaysia. Odds are that both of those traveled on a Chinese ship. ------ Add the 15 to 30 days it takes a ship to cross the Pacific to any illness-caused delays in production and the cancelled sailins and you have some idea of the potential increase in supply time of things coming from China. If you want N95 masks here this week, you'll be shipping by air and the end-user price will certainly increase to cover the more expensive shipping. ------ More on shipping: www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-shipping/chinas-coronavirus-disrupts-global-container-shipping-trade-idUSKBN2002K1The spread of the deadly virus has shut down cities and factories in China and disrupted global air travel. China’s decision to extend its Lunar New Year holiday period until Feb. 10 has compounded logistical complications, despite its ports staying open. China is a vital link to the container sector, transporting everything from fresh food to phones and designer clothes as well as industrial parts. The world’s top container lines Maersk (MAERSKb.CO), MSC and CMA CGM have all reduced calls to China, known as blank sailings, the companies said in recent days. Exports of goods from China have already been hit, with broader repercussions. Hyundai Motor (005380.KS) has said it will suspend production in South Korea, its biggest manufacturing base, because of a lack of spare parts. Disruptions to sea cargo flows have compounded an already pressured situation for shipping lines as they struggle with weaker markets and higher costs from new International Maritime Organization (IMO) regulations on low sulfur fuel. Shipping and trade sources say regular schedules are also being affected by truck and port workers in China stuck at home or away from their places of work. In addition, warehouses around dock areas in China are not fully working. This has led to ships being diverted from China to ports in South Korea. South Korea’s Busan port, one of the world’s major container terminals, has already seen a spillover with container capacity at 78% and could rise further from its usual level of 70%, a Busan port official said. “Shippers are parking cargo at our ports, so later, perhaps when the coronavirus dies down and the level of cargo (backlogged in China ports) decreases, they can deploy a small ship to carry these cargo to their destination in Chinese ports,” the official said. ------ There's more to the article but I thought the item on Hyundai suspending manufacturing in South Korea is of particular interest. If they can't get parts from China, how many other manufacturing businesses will shut down. No parts = no work. No work = no income. No income = no food. Part of the predictions for the US that people are still laughing at.
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Post by papaof2 on Mar 11, 2020 17:04:10 GMT -6
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Post by 9idrr on Mar 11, 2020 21:16:38 GMT -6
What we can be sure of is that confirmed cases will increase simply because more test kits will mean more reported patients.
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Post by papaof2 on Mar 12, 2020 17:34:47 GMT -6
The wife decided we needed to finish some stocking up (decongestant, Breathe Right Strips, laundry detergent, etc) so we hit Costco; lots of cart traffic jams, mostly full shelves but only ONE box of her Honey Bunches of Oats cereal - still lots of Cheerios and other things. ONE box of Cottonelle Wipes (we got it), bleach tablets but no liquid chlorine bleach. Almost a full pallet of Nutella, lots of peanut butter. Good stock of most OTC medications. Most of the Costco shoppers had 2 or more packages of bottled water in the cart (not us). There were 2 self-checkout lines, each about 15 carts deep but moving well. One clerked checkout line was 2/3 of the way to the back of the store but I didn't walk across the store to check the other lines. There was a millenial who was hassling a Costco employee about something he'd seen online but couldn't find in the store. Hello, stupid? Anyone in there? If 70% of the meat coolers are empty, do you expect someone to go kill a cow for you? Stopped at a large Publix on the way home (they usually have the 4-6 hour decongestant and I rarely use the 24 hour version). Picked up two small boxes (nothing bigger than 18 tablets on the shelf), the laundry detergent she had a BOGO raincheck for (last one on the shelf), last loaf of whole grain bread (it's now in our freezer), a small apple pie from their bakery (4 small slices of comfort food), couple of cans of chicken and some canned chili (not as good as what we make but much faster to prepare). I have some local water storage to work on (last 3 of the 5 gallon containers) but I think we may be in to stay. I did notice that the dollar went up a penny against the Euro today - whether Europeans like the US' "no visitors" policy or not, the financial world seems to have seen it as a positive. xe.com can give you the exchange rate for any currency: Euro to USD here but you can select others: www.xe.com/ucc/convert/?Amount=1&From=EUR&To=USDThe stock market hysteria doesn't bother me as the only stock I still hold is some employee shares of AT&T that were purchased a LONG time ago and have more than paid back their cost in the dividends which have been paid EVERY year. If I had a hunk of money to play with, I'd wait until late in the day tomorrow - when the end-of-the-week sellers are trying to get whatever they can - and buy several thousand shares. They're a good investment for the long term (as in next year or later), as people will continue to talk on the phone, send email, watch TV, etc. It seems that I'm not the only one who thinks so: finance.yahoo.com/news/buy-t-t-stock-dividend-220510747.htmlThere are stocks that lost 30%+: finance.yahoo.com/m/e4f44c0c-9696-34a6-acbc-66630cdeb020/these-stocks-sank-the-most.html?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahooI'll update the Covid-19 graphic after scmp.com does their Friday morning update (remember they're 13 hours ahead of us).
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Post by 9idrr on Mar 12, 2020 19:47:19 GMT -6
Sounds like a worthwhile last minute trip. Once the pallets are empty of TP, how much you think you could get per roll, sellin' it in the parking lot? As for the market, maybe the loppin' off of abuot a third in the way of deadwood will bring things back onto a more realistic area. And it never hurts to own some of them widows and orphans stocks. Does anyone besides myself wonder if we'll ever hear the real numbers from China, when this flu finally goes away?
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Post by papaof2 on Mar 12, 2020 20:03:47 GMT -6
Sounds like a worthwhile last minute trip. Once the pallets are empty of TP, how much you think you could get per roll, sellin' it in the parking lot? As for the market, maybe the loppin' off of abuot a third in the way of deadwood will bring things back onto a more realistic area. And it never hurts to own some of them widows and orphans stocks. Does anyone besides myself wonder if we'll ever hear the real numbers from China, when this flu finally goes away? Think I could get $5/roll for 2 ply, 470 sheet, individually wrapped rolls? As long as I'm visibly armed and there's a rifle barrel sticking out a tinted window on the SUV it might be safe enough ;-) I think the Chinese reports should be doubled (or more). I don't yet think it's to the point of adding a zero to the numbers. There's a possibility the accurate numbers will come out in the end as there are some strong voices there. However, govt opposition might all die of Covid-19 during the pandemic...
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Post by papaof2 on Mar 12, 2020 20:18:30 GMT -6
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Post by papaof2 on Mar 13, 2020 14:27:37 GMT -6
The stock market hysteria doesn't bother me as the only stock I still hold is some employee shares of AT&T that were purchased a LONG time ago and have more than paid back their cost in the dividends which have been paid EVERY year. If I had a hunk of money to play with, I'd wait until late in the day tomorrow - when the end-of-the-week sellers are trying to get whatever they can - and buy several thousand shares. They're a good investment for the long term (as in next year or later), as people will continue to talk on the phone, send email, watch TV, etc. It seems that I'm not the only one who thinks so: finance.yahoo.com/news/buy-t-t-stock-dividend-220510747.htmlSeems my guess was correct. AT&T came up over $3 today (a tad over 10%) and that increase is slightly better than the 9+% increases of the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P indexes - but you had to buy as soon as the market opened to get the best deals. So my timing was off a few hours - I don't make my living predicting the stock market ;-)
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Post by papaof2 on Mar 13, 2020 14:46:37 GMT -6
People are reading more. My ebook sales for February were almost double January's sales and so far March is trending the same.
Perhaps we're seeing this bit of logic?
"What can I do that doesn't involve touching things that other people have coughed or sneezed on or being in a place that I can be coughed or sneezed on? I got it! Read an ebook."
Has the patronage for paper books at public libraries and bookstores has been affected? Or if Covid-19 has affected the use of the free computers at the public libraries? Less use because of possible contagion or more use because of needing access to information?
If I needed conditioned space (heated/cooled) access to free wifi, I'd consider the local county library. There are small tables with power outlets under them (in the floor) so add a mask and gloves and a bottle of water and I'd be good for several hours. Worth burning the gas to go a mile? Maybe walk instead? Or set up the wifi-band antenna and see if any neighbor has unpassworded wifi?
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Post by 9idrr on Mar 13, 2020 20:00:06 GMT -6
" Or set up the wifi-band antenna and see if any neighbor has unpassworded wifi?" Ain't that the same as an invitation to use it?
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Post by papaof2 on Mar 13, 2020 21:18:15 GMT -6
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Post by papaof2 on Mar 13, 2020 22:02:49 GMT -6
Don't know if I've posted this before but patriotnurse on Youtube posts some good information. This one is on the whys of closing schools and limiting large gathering. Her numbers may make you uncomfortable. www.youtube.com/watch?v=QgtlDob4x2MIf you're trapped at home or you're managing children with the schools closed, these links to various world museums tours might be of interest. The art museums won't ring everyone's chimes but the Museum of Anthropology in Mexico might interest some boys (and some less-than-frilly girls I've known) and a museum designed in the 1500's might be of interest because of its age: www.travelandleisure.com/attractions/museums-galleries/museums-with-virtual-tours
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Post by papaof2 on Mar 14, 2020 21:12:07 GMT -6
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Post by papaof2 on Mar 14, 2020 23:39:49 GMT -6
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Post by papaof2 on Mar 15, 2020 14:21:18 GMT -6
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Post by papaof2 on Mar 15, 2020 15:03:00 GMT -6
In the hysteria to get bleach and other surface disinfectants, one that's been overlooked in this area is hydrogen peroxide. There's a list from the EPA of which chemicals kill which pathogens and HOW LONG IT TAKES on hard surfaces. www.epa.gov/pesticide-registration/list-n-disinfectants-use-against-sars-cov-2You can also download a PDF of that list (takes a minute, as it's 22 pages) and then you can have a ready reference, either electronic or paper. (You do have a printer that does duplex printing, don't you? Even some of the Brother inkjet printers now print both sides.). And, YES, there is a difference between the generic Clorox Laundry Bleach and their Germicidal Bleach product as the "kill time" is shorter with the germicidal version. The local Home Depot had that last week, even though the grocery stores were out of the laundry version. About $5/gallon.
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Post by papaof2 on Mar 15, 2020 19:53:29 GMT -6
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Post by papaof2 on Mar 16, 2020 0:49:41 GMT -6
Something scary running on the Travel Channel.
How the World Ends: "Pandemic Pandemonium"
original air date: 3/12/17
running on 3/16/20
It follows prepper families preparing for a global pandemic.
It shows the potential spread of a "bird flu" epidemic and how SARS was fought in 2003 and Ebola in 1914.
It also mentions a potential outbreak of a man-made virus.
Bio-warfare? In Hubei province? Near Wuhan? The possible source of SARS and MERS in addition to Covid-19 (or SARS-CoV-2)?
It's like watching future history.
However, the preppers say you must boil water in a pandemic as they don't all know that there is a water filter that can remove most viruses - just as the CDC's pages on water filtration (dated Feb 2009) say you can't filter out viruses. Sorry, people, but your education is lacking. There is at least one filter that goes to 0.02 micron and filters out 99.997% of viruses (better than EPA and NSF recommendations). The Sawyer Point Zero Two is about $200 and good for 1,000,000 liters (about 260,000 gallons). It gets micro-organisms but doesn't take out chlorine, fluoride or arsenic so you may still need an activated charcoal or similar second filter. No one filter gets everything (although the slow sand filter comes close) so you should work out which combination is best for you.
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