Going Dry

[papaof2]

This was one of the "started with a bang" stories where my muse provided over 11,000 words in the first 6 days (starting 2 years ago today) and then was in and out at her convenience. At almost 20,000 words, I think it's as done as it will ever be.

Enjoy.

Going Dry

Prologue

This story Copyright © by the author as of the date of first posting or of publication.


Wednesday, 1 November, 06:00

'This is your talkradio news at 6AM.  If you noticed the ground shaking a bit around 10PM yesterday, Dr. Thomas Logan, head seismologist at the state university, has notified us that the area experienced a small earthquake.  At 2.8 on the Richter scale, it's so small that many people probably didn't notice it.  Dr. Logan said the epicenter appeared to be at the North end of Morgan Lake - that's the end away from the dam - so there should be no disruption of power from Morgan Lake Dam.  In other news...'

"You were right, Mr. Wilson - we did have a little earthquake."
"Thank you, Mrs. Wilson.  My copy of an ancient Chinese 'earthquake detector' did work and it did point in that direction."*
"The urn with eight dragons?"
"Correct.  The trigger mechanism releases the ball from the dragon's mouth to the mouth of the toad below it in the direction the 'shake' came from."
"We'll have no aftereffects, Jack?"
"Sarah, any time there's an earthquake near a lake - even a small earthquake - there's the possibility of the lake's bottom being cracked or split or otherwise damaged in some manner and the water beginning to leak out.  That's something the Cherokee County Water System could check easily enough, as there are 'fill level' markers every few hundred yards around the lake."
"The white posts with black numbers on them?"
"Correct.  The numbers are feet of water at that point.  Any sudden change should be a red flag."

---

Wednesday, 1 November, 13:30

"Didn't I tell you NOT to take any more from tunnel seven?"
"Grandpa Lem, you said not more than one wheelbarrow load.  Jake's first little charge didn't give us that much so he doubled it…"
"And what did I say about the size of the charges?"
"Nothing more than that little one that no one ever notices but Jake saw more silver…"
"And Jake's actions were noticed across the county and on the talkradio station this morning!  You're both restricted to the property for three months.  This has to have time to settle down and be forgotten before anyone goes back in the mine."
"Yes, Grandpa Lem.  You want me to tell Jake?"
"No, Jethro.  I told him first and I took away all his keys - even the one for the horse barn - so he'll only leave the property on foot."
"He ain't gonna like that."
"You're right.  I'm certain that you won't either.  Your keys."
"But…"
"Keys, Jethro."
"Yes, Grandpa.  What about the water and the fish in the mine?  And the skidsteer?"
"We'll have to investigate when things quiet down enough.  Meanwhile, neither of you is to be off the property unless with a trusted escort…"
"One of the out-of-work gorillas from the former 'civilian security forces' in the Middle East?"
"Whatever is needed to keep the family safe."

---

Thursday, 2 November, 07:00

'This is your talkradio news for Thursday morning.  Our top item this morning is the announcement from the Cherokee County Water System that problems with the pumps will require instituting limited water availability to allow additional maintenance to be done between midnight and 6AM for the next week.  Hopefully these hours will cause minimal disruption to most personal and business water users.  And now to other news...'

"Jack, is County Water trying to cover up a problem with that announcement?"
"Possibly.  Their system has less pressure and flow than usual which could be a pump problem or a problem with the intakes in Morgan Lake."
"Was something affected by that 'little shake' the other night?"
"I'm sure that's a valid possibility but we'd need a lot more information to have a definitive answer."

---


Tuesday, 14 November, 05:00

'This is your talkradio news at 6AM Tuesday morning.  Our top item today is the Cherokee County Water System announcement that problems with the system will require all users to boil their water five minutes before using it for the next 72 hours in addition to the limited water availability between midnight and 6AM.  The Boil Water order will be rescinded when the problems are resolved.  For public safety, we'll be repeating the Boil Water order every hour until that order is cancelled.  In other news...'

"Jack, they're talking about the bit of cloudiness in and the odor from the water?"
"Yes, Sarah.  The 'cloudiness' is more correctly called 'turbidity' and there are federal limits on that and other things in potable water.  I'm wondering if the lake's level is so low their floating intakes are no longer high enough above the bottom of the lake.  We need more water backup than the eight 5-gallon jugs so I'll put the WaterBOB in the bathtub in the basement and also bring the 150 gallon tank into the basement and then sanitize both of those with bleach and boil enough water to fill both of them."
"You'll be doing that all day?"
"A good number of hours when I'll be boiling just 5 gallons at a time."
"We have enough LP to do that?"
"Both LP tanks are at 70% but I'll call Buddy Dean to come fill both of them Friday."
"After you're finished with this session of boiling water."
"I'll call while I'm waiting for a watched pot to boil..."
"You goof!"
"Anything to keep you smiling, love.  If the 'Boil Water' order lasts more than a couple of days, I'll set up the Sawyer Point Zero Two filter that traps bacteria, protozoa and viruses and an activated charcoal filter for just about everything else.  I'll also add 500 mesh and 1000 mesh filters to the input of the filter system to collect most of the small particulate matter and then stack some coffee filters to catch the rest of it."
"Where will you put all that?"
"All of it will fit on a 2' X 4' piece of plywood so it can easily be moved if we must use the water from the 250 gallon tote that collects rainwater for the flowers."
"You think it will get that bad?"
"I don't know for certain, but the 'maintenance between midnight and 6AM for the next week' is at the end of its second week.  Either County Water doesn't know what the problem is or they're not telling us the truth.  I need to check that all the pieces I bought to hand drill a well after having a dowser out to locate the best places to drill are still usable."

---

* kidsdiscover.com/quick-reads/ancient-chinese-seismometer-used-dragons-toads/

[papaof2]

Chapter 1

Tuesday, 28 November, 20:35

Whoosh!
Splash!
Gurgle!
Whoosh!
Gurgle!
Drip.
Drip.
Drip.

"Jack, did County Water finally die?"
"Yes, Sarah.  I think that's the death knell for Cherokee County Water.  We've had a supposed '72 hour Boil Water' order for the past two weeks and a 'Limited water availability between midnight and 6AM for a week' notice for most of the month.  The 'problem' has been reported to be  'pump maintenance', 'pump problem', 'damaged seals', 'worn pump', 'damaged pipe', 'bad pump motor' and 'frozen pipe' - none of those 'problems' apply to a failure that didn't respond to any of their 'fixes'.  I suspect that I'm not the only one who didn't believe them by the third time they 'found the problem'.  A little research online finds many aerial and from-the-shore pictures of Morgan Lake over the past month and the lake's level has been dropping visibly from day to day.  That's not something you'd expect from a water source that County Water has in their 'Water System Facts' handout as 'Minimum of 90 days supply without additional rain at the County's average usage of 4 million gallons per day' - that works out to 360 million gallons available."
"Jack, we're not in an earthquake zone - it's at least 300 miles to the New Madrid Fault Zone.  However, we did have that barely noticed shake of 2.8 on the Richter scale on Halloween night.  Is there a connection?"
"Perhaps it's time for me to do some geological research online?"
"Keep me informed.  I'll bring up the first of the 5-gallon water jugs while you do research."

We're impacted by the loss of water but we're not in immediate need, as the eight 5-gallon water jugs are filled, the 80 gallon WaterBOB was placed in the tub in the basement bath and filled when the "Boil Water" order was issued and I cleaned the 150 gallon tank, moved it to the basement and filled it the same day - nice to have some big pots when you need to boil that much water.  The bigger containers have either a siphon pump for small amounts of water or a small on-demand 12 volt pump that's powered by the battery bank on the solar backup system to get water to the kitchen and bathroom.  Those containers add up to 270 gallons.  At two gallons per person per day plus 10 gallons a week for a sun shower for each of us, there is more than a month's water that's been filtered, boiled and stored - plenty for the two of us.  There are also multiple 12-packs of generic "spring water" from the grocery store for drinking and cooking.  The tote for outside watering has 250 gallons of rainwater that could be filtered and made useful but runoff from an asphalt shingle roof needs some serious cleaning to be drinkable - maybe County Water will be back in 30 days and I won't be doing the hard work of cleaning the stored rainwater in that container?
I'll guess that every store that is open at this hour is being swept clean of bottled water - possibly every beverage of any type.  Nothing like the "Whoosh!", "Gurgle!" and "Drip." of empty pipes to panic the sheeple.  Anything on the TV news...

Bee-Doop!  Bee-Doop!  Bee-Doop!

That's the SAME weather receiver.  What problem are they reporting?

'This is a Civil Emergency Alert.  The Cherokee County Water System has been shut down due to water flow and pressure problems.  If your faucets are still delivering water, the water should be boiled for five minutes before using it.  The current estimate for the water system to be back up is 10PM Tuesday.  National Guard water trucks will be at the parking lots of all County parks and library branches at 8AM and 6PM tomorrow to provide 5 gallons per family.  ID will be required and addresses will be checked.  You will NOT be allowed to get water at both hours and armed County law enforcement will be present to enforce this limit.  These are 10,000 gallon tankers, NOT a truck loaded with 12-packs, so you must take your own containers.  That needs repeating: YOU MUST TAKE YOUR OWN CONTAINERS!!  County offices including the County Courts, welfare offices and public schools of all levels will be closed until normal water flow is restored.  Because of the lack of water, only limited care is available at Cherokee General Hospital.  Check with your place of employment before reporting to work in the next 48 hours as many will be closed because without running water they can't provide mandated sanitation facilities.  Most private schools and childcare facilities are also affected - call to determine their status.  Grocery and convenience stores are temporarily exempted from their usual sanitation facility requirement so people can obtain food and water or other beverages.  Their restrooms will be locked and sealed by order of the County Commission.  This message is also being sent out by Amber Alert and Reverse-911 where available.  The local radio and TV stations should have lists of closed facilities before 11PM.  As the various businesses, organizations and schools notify the County, their status and hours, if open, will be added to the online list at cherokeecounty.gov/water/outages.  This message will be repeated each hour.'

Sounds as though they expected this if they'll have a partial solution in place in less than twelve hours.  The big question is - how long have they been expecting this and why didn't they notify the public sooner?  Unless this is also affecting the surrounding counties, all of whom get at least part their water either directly from Morgan Lake or from the Cherokee Water System?  The next question is where did they find enough water to fill a dozen or more 10,000 gallon tankers?  Seems I have more questions than answers.  Time to share my notes.

"Sarah?"
"Jack, you have that 'don't shoot the messenger' tone in your voice."
"That would be correct.  Here's a written summary of what I've found."

---

"Three other counties have similar status?"
"That's what I found via radio and TV news, listening to the primary NWS weather radio frequencies in the other counties, a few minutes listening to CB channels 9 and 19 and a quick check on the two meter ham band."
"That 'little shake' was a major event?  All those counties get at least some of their water from Morgan Lake or Cherokee County Water so I'd expect similar announcements there as well."
"It appears that way right now.  I need to do more research on the underlying geology of the area to see if that might actually be the case."
"Your friend at the university?"
"Dr. Thomas Logan is our resident seismologist and geologist and can probably tell me more about the underlying layers of the county and what effects that 'little shake' might have had than anyone else.  I'll text him and ask for his opinion - or that might be his confirmation of my analysis."

{Tom, is the loss of water related to the 'little shake' on October 31?  If so, how?  If not, other ideas about what happened?  Thanks, Jack.}

Our only local expert might be very busy so I don't expect an answer soon.  Meanwhile, I should sort through the pieces needed to filter and pump the rainwater and be sure we have everything needed and that it's convenient to that 250 gallon tote, when or if it's needed - which I hope is not the case.

---

"Grandpa Lem, where we gonna get water?"
"The pond on the north 40."
"But it's muddy from the pigs getting in there."
"Pigs?  I never allow pigs in that area!  Who let the pigs in there, Jethro?"
"Jake did."
"Go tell that boy I want to see him NOW!"
"Yes sir!"

---

[gipsy]

Wanna bet there is a mine full of water?

[223shootersc]

Nov 30, 2023 10:43:09 GMT -6 gipsy said:

Wanna bet there is a mine full of water?

Gipsy,

I would have to have at least a hunnert to one to bet a sawbuck!

[papaof2]

Chapter 2

Tuesday, 28 November, 23:40

OK, I have my list and it's basically moving the 2' X 4' piece of plywood with the Sawyer filter and the activated carbon filter to the wall beside the door nearest the big tote.  The barrels, buckets, pipe, hoses, pumps - including the float collar which will hold the pump's intake so it's pulling water from two inches below the top surface of the water in that tote and water level switches as appropriate for their parts of the filtration process - are also at hand as is the five gallon still if we need to boil that water.
I'm still waiting to hear from Tom but the rumor mill has been grinding out some interesting stories.  Alien UFOs pumping the water out to Mars or Alpha Centauri?  Sorry, but the pipes would have no support and the cold would freeze the water before it left Earth's atmosphere unless they're heating many millions of miles of hopefully insulated pipe - and you need some serious articulated joints plus pipe that can stretch and shrink because the Earth and whichever "destination" they've chosen are both moving very fast in three dimensions.  It seems some people will believe almost anything, as the local talkradio station has had four callers with some version of that rumor in the past ten minutes.  The locations of the people calling in did confirm how big an area the water outage affects but I don't want that noise in the background any longer so I'll slip a CD into the under-cabinet clock-radio's slot and have some Christmas music since it's almost December.  What are my choices?   Two CDs of Trans-Siberian Orchestra, two of Mannheim Steamroller and two of Appalachian hammered dulcimer.  How about one of each, dulcimer first?

Bzzt!Bzzt!

A text - and it's from Tom.

{The 'little shake' did damage in a very bad place.  Maps, diagrams and spreadsheets on the private section of my website.  Don't share these with anyone other than Sarah until I tell you - the powers that be are almost hysterical that no one has ever paid serious attention to a partial geologic survey that was done in 1913.  Hope you're OK on water for a month or more.  The National Guard's source will likely begin drying up in less than a week.  Even the military's reverse osmosis filters can't get clean water from mud.  Details on those pages.}

"Sarah, I heard from Tom."
"You still sound like 'don't shoot'."
"Effectively the same status.  Read this text while I login on his site."

"His 'a month or more' is not positive - and I don't think the local population will hold together that long."
"I agree.  We might be seeing martial law in some areas very soon.  Come here and have a look at what the 1913 survey described."

"There are mines and a cave system under Morgan Lake - the lake that all four counties use for at least part of their water source?  Isn't that a lake collapse just waiting to happen?"
"It often is - especially if the cave system is made of limestone or gypsum, but there's no info on the cave system's rock type in anything I've seen so far.  If it's all limestone or gypsum, we can expect things to disappear into sinkholes all over the area as the on-going rain and runoff erode the rest of the porous rock.  However, silver and lead are often found in or near granite so that would be a very good non-porous rock under the lake.  We need to know the composition of that rock before anyone makes serious plans.  If they're made of some durable rock, Tom's exploration of the possible water capacity of those caves and mines and the expected in-flow from the streams and rivers which feed the lake plus the average monthly rainfall will be useful.  My guess in that instance is months for the caves and mines to fill and then the lake will begin to refill but it will also take weeks to months to get the water in Morgan Lake to a useful depth - assuming the caves and mines don't have an outlet which can drain them as fast as the runoff comes in.  Some 'we-know-best' County Commissioners had the entrances to the caves concreted over in 1914 'to keep the children safe' so the cave system was never completely mapped."
"We're OK with using the 250 gallons of rainwater collected for the flowers until you can add collection from the much cleaner metal roof of the barn so we could eventually have almost normal quantities of water available... but do you have pumps to pressurize the house plumbing?"
"Two 12 volt on-demand pumps - think RV water systems with only one shower on at a time."
"So shower versus dishwasher versus clothes washer?"
"That's pretty much what you get with one 4.6GPM pump.  I need to work out the square footage of the barn's roof and see how much water we could collect from each inch of rainfall and then check the 30-year rainfall records from NOAA and see how much water we'd collect each month.  We may not be able to support our typical monthly gallons of usage from County Water."
"No more letting the hot water run until it gets warm before washing your hands?"
"Probably keeping some empty gallon jugs handy to collect that water for other uses."
"If it means having warm showers, I can learn new ways of doing some things.  How long until County Water is back?"
"Tom's working on that, but it could be months - if it can be done."
"IF?!?"
"No one knows how big the caves and mines are or whether they have any outlets or how much outflow those outlets might provide - or if the caves are limestone or gypsum and will continue to dissolve from the rain and runoff water going through them and then the lake collapses completely."
"So months before they know if the caves and mines are filling up?"
"Possibly - unless someone wants to try blasting to create some dams in the caves 'so they'll fill up sooner' but that could potentially collapse other parts of the lake bottom or the caves and possibly provide new outlets from the caves.  It would be best if someone knowledgeable explored the caves to determine the type of rock and then see whether they are partially filled and if some as-yet-unknown amount of rain and runoff could fill them or if they're just a tunnel to another place - and hopefully before someone in the dot-gov starts making plans to build a new lake on what might be an unstable footing."
"They don't know what they're doing but they want to be seen as doing 'something'?"
"Unfortunately, it wouldn't be the first time in this county - in 1913 they didn't want anyone to explore the caves."
"True.  You'll be working on collecting rain from the barn's roof?"
"I'm making my list of parts from the measurements of the barn.  I'll hook the big trailer to the 4WD pickup in the morning and go looking for heavy plastic or aluminum gutters and downspouts and a 5,000 to 10,000 gallon water tank - after calling to verify who's open.  I expect Perry Lumber will be open, as they use portable outhouses so they can re-arrange things in the yard by season."
"Those don't need running water.  Good place to start."
"Thank you for the positive review, Mrs. Wilson."
"You're welcome, Mr. Wilson."

---

"Jack, how is it that we still have electricity if the Morgan Lake is running dry?"
"Because only 6% of this state's power comes from hydro sources, with the dam on Morgan Lake producing about half of that.  That 3% of the state's electric power is only noticed if another plant is down for maintenance or during the seasonal peaks of heating in January when Morgan Lake is full and the dam runs at full power, and cooling in August when the lake may be at its lowest and the dam only produces about half as much power.  Any shortfall from the hydro plants is currently more than covered by the nuclear plant about 100 miles north of us, the coal-fired plant 30 miles east of us and the natural gas-fired plant about 20 miles south of us.  That missing 3% from the Morgan Lake Dam may become important for heating in January when the highs are in the 30s and the lows are in the teens - even more so if we have another January with a week or more of lows in single digits..."  
"I remember that!  That's the year the furnace died in January and the '3 day' turnaround on the control board took two full weeks.  We used the gas logs and the kerosene heater plus some strategically placed fans to make the most of the heat - but we had power for the fans.  What if they don't have power from Morgan Lake Dam in the January that's just weeks away?"
"I'd expect they'd either let the power brownout down below 110 volts or they'd do rotating blackouts with six hours on and two hours off - neither keeps you warm all the time but neither lets you freeze to death, although you may have to adjust your usual mealtimes if you cook with electricity."
"We'll not be affected?"
"We'll be inconvenienced but we won't be cold, hungry or in the dark.  The solar backup system can easily handle the fridge, freezer and furnace for six hours a day - three blocks of two hours without power every 24 hours.  Remember that my solar backup design was for at least twelve hours of backup power.  Other than the need to walk down the stairs to the basement and switch things over, it only takes a minute or so to set it up.  If we'll be doing that frequently, I'll leave everything connected and we'll just need to turn the inverter on and off and flip the breakers on the transfer switch when power goes off and comes back on."
"You can't automate that?"
"I chose not to automate it so it wouldn't switch over every time there's a hit on the power.  Out here, we get trees or limbs in or on the distribution lines with almost every high wind or thunderstorm and two or three lightning hits on the distribution lines every year - the primary reason I installed that whole house surge protector on the breaker panel - so I made the switchover manual.  It's only sixteen steps down and sixteen steps back up, so I'll do it if your ancient body..."
"'Ancient body'?  I'm only two months older than you!"
"That's such a good target for teasing.  Chamomile tea and some Walker's shortbread cookies on the counter by the stove."
"Peace offering accepted - you know I can't resist those cookies.  What if there is no sun?"
"We have 20 gallons of treated gasoline in one of the sheds and the small inverter generator runs six to eight hours on one gallon.  We 'fill at half' so the gas in our vehicles would be another 20 to 30 gallons depending on which days we filled up.  With no sun and the power off continuously, the gen would be needed about three hours in the morning to recharge a full night's usage and perhaps up to three hours late in the day to have the battery bank at 90% or better before dark.  But we're looking at just six hours a day without power so the recharge times would be much shorter than when there's no power."
"Forty or fifty days and nights?  Should I be thinking 'Biblical level of chaos'?"
"Gas for forty or fifty days and nights if power is off continuously and there is no sun.  With rolling blackouts, the battery charger could easily replace two hours of power used from the batteries in the six hours of commercial power before the next power cut if there is no sun.  With normal sun, the charging would happen normally during the day and we'd not have to do anything.  I hope it doesn't become a 'Biblical level of chaos', but should I tell Noah Grayson to have his boat stocked with food and water, fully fueled and ready to float off the trailer?"
"You goof!  We're talking about a lack of water, not enough to float that cabin cruiser!  Speaking of fuel: where would we get gas during a blackout?"
"The truck stop at the interstate is about 40 miles away but they do have backup power for their pumps and probably more diesel for their backup generator than anyone else in the state - and remember that we are discussing a 'maybe' event.  Let's see what 'The Old Farmer's Almanac' has for our weather in January."
"They're how accurate?"
"About 85% - pretty good for that many months in advance."
"Then I'll see what the Almanac says about January's weather before I decide we're going to be in the dark."
"That sounds like a good start on dealing with 'maybe'."

---

[gipsy]

Thanks

[sniper69]

papaof2, thanks for the new story. Looking forward to reading more of your fine writing talents.

[papaof2]

Chapter 3

Wednesday, 29 November, 00:45

Bzzt!Bzzt!

A text - from Tom.

{Best guess as of now: 90 days of "normal" rainfall to finish filling the caves under Morgan Lake, then about 90 days to get it up to a useful level for drinking water supply and then perhaps 3 to 6 months to get the lake "full" for the season and full enough to produce some level of power.  Worst case is the counties will need to create at least one new lake which can be fed by the existing sources and install culverts or canals to get the water to that new lake or maybe more than one lake - if they can find enough bentonite to create lake bottoms that can retain water.  I'm leaning toward 6 months to know the status of Morgan Lake and then working from that.  I think there's a good chance the lake can be repaired - the most recent pix only show one hole at the end of the lake away from the dam so a new dam or levee at that end of Morgan Lake would retain about 70% of the lake's original capacity.  I hope you're well armed and supplied for at least a year.  Tom.}

"Sarah, you need to see this text."
"Jack, it's after midnight."
"It's important."
"OK.  I'm here.  What's so important that..."

---

"Next to you, Tom's the most practical and unflappable person I know.  If he sees months before water is restored and has already mentioned 'well armed', I think we may be headed for an event of SHTF proportions in this area."
"Unless the state and the feds can provide enough water to keep the people going - and enough money for some major construction - much of the area could be like the Dust Belt of the 1930's: the farms and businesses will just dry up and blow away."
"Jack, I don't think even your jack-of-all-trades abilities will be able to help much with this."
"You're right, Sarah.  We can take care of ourselves but we can't provide for every family on this road and certainly not everyone in the county.  This flyer from County Water says 80% of the residents get their water from County Water - that's probably every drop they use other than bottled water - and the Guard's '5 gallons per family per day' may keep those families hydrated and fed but they'll be dirty and unable to water even their kitchen gardens next Spring if there isn't enough rain, plus Tom said the Guard's source may only last a week.  There are maybe a dozen farms in the entire county that have a small stream or creek on the property but most of those sources don't provide enough water for growing much more than a family garden, and without question not enough for a working farm.  Almost none of the businesses can be open without water for sanitation and having 'Johnny-On-The-Job' facilities won't work for most businesses - those are very cold 'facilities' in the winter and there's no place to wash your hands.  A lot of people in the county have little or nothing put back for bad times so they'll be looking for new jobs and new places to live in a few days.  I suspect the nearest towns with decent water supplies will be getting a lot of wannabe new residents as soon as the 'six months until normal water' announcement is made."
"I agree.  We start going visibly armed in addition to the usual concealed?"
"Correct.  Better to be safe than sorry.  I need to turn on and verify all the electric fences and gates plus the motion sensors."
"Ten hours to walk the fences with the beeper in your hand?"
"About that, but it can be done in segments with the enclosed area closest to the house and outbuildings done when I get back from shopping - after tonight's somewhat short sleep hours - and the other fencing checked the next day."
"Yes, it will be a short night.  You ready for bed?"
"As soon as I check that the cameras are all set for 'Record on motion' and 'Alert on motion'."
"Remember to brush and floss."
"You too."

---

[feralferret]

Looks like hard times ahead, Papaof2. Thank you.

[papaof2]

A change from my usual "no electricity" tales but I hope this is sufficiently believable to be at least a little scary.

[gipsy]

Scary makes a good story

[feralferret]

Just don't let the idiot pilot from your "Is That Rain?" story show up. With no water to wash down the fuel or fight fires, that would be one heck of a mess.   

[papaof2]

That pilot won't show up again. The death toll of that accident was one.

All would not be lost for me - the neighbor to the south has a full enclosure over his in-ground pool so that water would be clean - and I have about 300 feet of garden hose. Not sure how many gallons in that pool but probably a good start on washing down a line of houses ;-) But there's also the 250 gallon tote of rainwater for dry season watering of flowers and shrubs. You figure how many hours 250 gallons would last at 2.2GPM.

When you get two instances of stupid or OOPS! at the same time, you have the setting for a disaster.

250 gallons would last less than 2 hours - it would do a quick (not thorough) wash of most of the house and hard surfaces but not much of the yard. That would probably be left to hope that the house's runoff of soapy water would help the yard.
As described in the tale, less than half the house would have had kerosene (JP<whatever>) on it so the 250 gallons might have been adequate. Don't know what the other neighbors might have done without nearly unlimited water available.

[papaof2]

Chapter 4

Wednesday, 29 November, 07:45

"Hello the house!"

"Who's there, Jack?"
"Sheriff Pete Dawson, from the logo on the SUV and the size of the guy at the gate."

BZZT!

'Gate's unlocked.  Come in, Pete.'
'On my way.'

knock. knock.

"Awfully soft for a law enforcement knock, Pete."
"First, you knew I was there.  Second, it's not an official visit.  The electric fence is hot from the little flashing light by the gate and you're both visibly armed so you probably have some idea of how bad the water outage is and will be."
"I got my water status info from Tom Logan last night.  Coffee or Earl Gray tea from the Keurig?  That's something we'll miss during potential future power outages."
"I'll do that.  The official announcement of 'possibly three to six months to restore normal water supplies' will be made at 5PM today.  I see that you have the big trailer behind your pickup so I'll assume you have a large shopping list."
"More that it's a shopping list for large things - gutters, downspouts, first-flush filters and a 5,000 gallon or larger water tank to make use of the barn's metal roof for rain collection.  Some quick calculations from a spreadsheet I found online* plus the county's 30 year rain records from noaa.gov tell me that rain collected from the entire barn roof should provide near-normal water usage for the two of us and a 10,000 gallon tank would be filled in six or seven months.  That spreadsheet even has a place to add the amount of water used for outdoor irrigation and that usage can be keyed to the average amount of rainfall in a given month - think water for our garden.  I'm planning to put the tank in the equipment area of the barn and run some one inch pipe underground.  The irrigation pipe plow should work fine for that and leave minimal evidence behind."
"Just shopping for that?"
"No, I'll also be looking for another kerosene heater and a lot more kerosene - as fallback if we can't get the propane tanks filled next summer - plus several types of fencing and a couple of spare fence chargers.  Sarah has her own list."
"No seed?"
"We've always saved the seed from the heirloom plants we grow so we'll have an equally good garden next year and the years after.  I may drop the trailer at Perry Lumber so they can load it while we run the other errands.  We plan to be back well before that announcement is made."
"Good thinking.  Do you think the loss of Morgan Lake will affect electric power?"
"Less than 6% of the state's power comes from hydro but the 3% from Morgan Lake Dam might be important in January when we have a couple weeks with highs in the 30s and lows in the teens."
"Brownouts or rolling blackouts?"
"I'd guess either or both, depending on who yells the loudest.  Don't think anyone will be out protesting if the temperature is 31F and we're getting freezing rain.  If there's enough freezing rain, neither brownouts nor blackouts will matter until the lines are back up."
"Leave it to Jack to up the ante on how bad things could get!"
"Pete, all I did was answer your question."
"Maybe I was hoping for a more positive answer than I got from the manager at the power co-op about 30 minutes ago?"
"They know their equipment and the area's weather from experience.  We've lived here 20 years so I expect my answer was about the same as theirs.  I don't yet have a horse in that race - we have enough solar backup power to handle potential rolling blackouts.  We can switch things that a brownout could damage over to solar or generator power - or just turn some things off for the short term - if the line voltage drops too much.  One UPS alerts on a 10% up or down change in nominal line voltage so we will be notified to switch the fridge, freezer and furnace to the backup system.  The clothes washer and dryer just get stopped in mid-cycle as neither the solar backup system nor the inverter generator is big enough to run everything."
"Slight fallback in convenience but you'll still have lights and heat?"
"Correct.  We might be using some portable LED lighting, oil lamps or even candles part of the time so we look no better off than most of the county."
"I saw the 'candle lantern' on the counter.  How long do those candles last?"
"Their ad says nine hours per candle and I have ten of those candles.  Possibly 90 hours of candlelight - that's an hour a day for three months - is a long time when we won't have much light in the areas of the house that are visible to the outside if power is off."
"I'll guess you set the kerosene heater on the tile floor in here and use a ceiling fan to blow warm air down on the tile to store heat."
"You guess correctly.  The ceramic tile makes a good heat storage bank, as does the masonry fireplace."
"You'll be using 1-K kerosene?"
"More likely a mix of 1-K and red kero.  The more-than-a-dollar-per-gallon difference in price makes it worth my time to do the mix and the heater has a fiberglass wick so it can handle red kero.  Before you ask, all the kero is treated with Pri-D to preserve it."
"How much Pri-D?"
"What I remember is just under 2ml/gallon for kero but the exact numbers are on the Pri-D label."
"I can get small syringes in the animal meds section of Tractor Supply?"
"Correct."
"Add that to my list of things to do before 5PM."
"Paper list?"
"People steal phones.  No one cares about a scrap of paper in my shirt pocket."
"Sounds like a cop's response."
"I've heard that one from you before, Jack."
"I'm sure you have, Pete.  Remember to fill your mug with something warm before you go; it's cheaper here than at any drive-through."
"Better coffee, too.  If things don't warm up today, I might stop by for a cup on my way home - if I get home after the announcement.  I have most of my deputies scheduled for a 5PM to 1AM shift tonight.  If we catch a majority of the troublemakers the first night, things in the county should be much better for the good guys."
"Good plan, but you may have a long night."
"I'm aware that no plan survives contact with the enemy.  I have a three day bag in the SUV, complete with self-heating MREs, some Mountain House pouches, a 12 volt coffeemaker - what I’ll use to get hot water for the Mountain House pouches, a sleeping bag with self-inflating pad, three changes of clothes, spare boots and two 5 gallon water jugs."
"How much ammo?"
"Six loaded magazines for the Glock and ten for the AR.  Six rounds of 00 in the 12 gauge and six slugs in the sleeve on the stock - plus plenty more of everything in the boxes."
"Plates in your vest?"
"On the seat beside me.  They go in before the announcement starts."
"Remember that Alice and the kids would like to have you home tonight."
"They would.  Me too.  You'll be available until midnight?"
"That sounds like a tactical question but I will be here.  I might even be putting the current situation into story format when I'm not otherwise busy."
"How much are you making from ebook sales?"
"Yearly average over five years is almost enough to pay the property taxes."
"That's maybe $900 per year so it isn't much by the hour - but more than when you give the stories away online."
"I do have some loyal readers online - including one who goes by 'SouthernLEO'."
"You would recognize some of the incidents I've mentioned, wouldn't you?"
"Yes, but most of those things could have happened anywhere within 200 miles of here because the 'Sunny South' covers a lot of square miles.  I just recognize certain landscape features and some colloquialisms that are specific to the area."
"That's what I get for having a 'spook' for a friend."
"Now, now, Pete.  The proper term is 'intelligence analyst'."
"At your level of analysis, that's more correctly 'spook'."
"You stay safe.  Stop by if you need chamomile tea or some 'spook' work."
"Probably both before daylight."

---

* jecarter.us/files/RWH-calc-modified.xls
The original spreadsheet was from the Rainwater Harvesting Group's files on yahoo.com but Yahoo decided some time ago to dump the thousands of useful files they once hosted.  The original author may not appreciate my changes, but a copy of the spreadsheet is still available online.

[gipsy]

Fine update, Thanks

[sniper69]

papaof2 - thanks for the new chapter.

Also for anyone looking for the spreadsheet and having issues clicking the link - I found that if I remove the www. from the link that it will download the excel sheet.

[papaof2]

sniper69,

Something odd going on at the web server. I put up another small spreadsheet in the same place and it downloads with no problems. I'll check further. At least copy and paste work...

[sniper69]

Dec 3, 2023 13:56:02 GMT -6 papaof2 said:

sniper69,

Something odd going on at the web server. I put up another small spreadsheet in the same place and it downloads with no problems. I'll check further. At least copy and paste work...

papaof2 - no worries.  as long as one can get the spreadsheet, it is appreciated.  I have it saved and do appreciate you sharing with everyone, as it looks to be quite useful.

Somewhere on one of my archive drives, I have a copy of TOM's radiation spreadsheet.  I really need to organize some of my archive drives better.

[gipsy]

Download failed for me

[papaof2]

gipsy,

You'll have to copy the link and paste it into the browser until I get it fixed. My day started poorly with waking at 3AM in need of serious Rx pain med and it has not improved over time so my Sherlock Holmes gene is severely repressed today :-(

[gipsy]

I woke up with a bit of a hitch in my giddeup to. Hope you feel better tomorrow.

[feralferret]

Link just worked for me.

Gipsy, maybe you didn't hold your mouth just right. Oh, and you forgot to do it while standing on your head.

[papaof2]

Chapter 5

Wednesday, 29 November, 17:01

'This is your local talkradio station bringing you breaking news on the hour at 5PM.  Our top story is the water outage in Cherokee County and the surrounding counties.  The Cherokee County Commission provided the following statement to all news outlets for broadcast at 5PM.'
"The water problems at Morgan Lake have been traced to damage done by the almost unnoticed earthquake on October 31.  At 2.8 on the Richter scale, it was tiny by comparison to most earthquakes, but this one did damage to the floor of the lake which caused the lake's water to drain into the large cave system under Morgan Lake.  Dr. Thomas Logan, head seismologist and geologist at the state university, has determined that the cave system, which was sealed for public safety reasons in 1914, will have to be opened and explored well enough to determine whether it is a closed system or if it has drains which the water from the lake could exit through.  If the cave system is closed, estimated time to fill the caves is a minimum of three months and possibly up to six months.  Once the cave system is filled, Morgan Lake will need another three months to fill enough to be useful as a water supply and at least another three months before Morgan Lake Dam would be able to produce power.  If the cave system has drains which cannot be plugged, the responsible government agencies will need to either repair Morgan Lake, if possible, or build a new lake large enough to provide water for all four counties and to power Morgan Lake Dam.  Construction time for a new lake is estimated to be 24 to 36 months plus the months for the rain and runoff to fill it to a useful level.  The Governor has declared all four counties to be disaster areas and has requested assistance from the federal government.  At this time, there has been no response from FEMA so there is no time frame for that assistance to be made available.  The Cherokee County Commission will provide updates as they are made available by the Governor or FEMA."
'Folks, I think that means we won't see normal water supplies in Cherokee and the surrounding counties for six months to a year at best and for three or four years at worst.  Meanwhile, the National Guard water tankers will be in their usual places at 8AM and 6PM each day this week.  You must bring your own containers!  And now this word from our sponsor.'
'"Need to move to a place with water and jobs?  Call us for the best prices on moves under 100 miles.  That's 'Two Men and a Truck Moving' at 866-555-MOVE."'

---

I didn't expect anyone to find a positive in the problem this soon but it seems that moving company did.  There is water less than 100 miles away but jobs might be a bit harder to find.  I'm not sure how many jobs at the "You want fries with that?" level will be available elsewhere after the first day or so of people moving out.  Probably not that much housing available either unless the state or the feds bring in some trailers or rent all the motel rooms.  The "no time frame for that assistance to be made available" means the folks wanting to move elsewhere had best send out a search party with cash for the deposit and the first month's rent - but most of them probably don't have that much cash or credit.  Cherokee County is in third place on the list of the state's ten poorest counties.  
Maybe my jack-of-all-trades outlook can help a few people - a tarp, maybe even a shower curtain, could be hung from a clothesline or maybe a tree limb or two to catch dew or rain or snow and take it to a 55 gallon barrel or even a Number 2 washtub - a clean washtub is something that might be more readily available out here than a clean barrel, partly because some folks still bathe in those washtubs.  Not a lot of water but maybe enough each month for one or two people?  I'll sketch that out in LibreCAD and show it to Pete when I see him again.  Those who have a place to stay could collect a little water.  I should plug the useful area of a 6X8 tarp in that configuration into the rainwater harvesting spreadsheet and see how many gallons it would provide in a typical December...

OK, with typical yearly December precipitation one tarp can provide two gallons per day, which is double the minimum for survival for one person - some of that may have to be melted but it is water, even if in a somewhat-harder-to-use form.  Certainly not as easy as turning a faucet but better than no water.  Doubling the number of tarps will double the amount of water collected.  Wonder how many will complain when the National Guard tankers stop showing up?  Tom did say their source would be dry in less than a week.  Maybe have Pete arrange for copies of this to be available during the remaining days of water distribution?  I'll suggest that the next time he's here.  
The number of calls I've heard on the Sheriff's dispatch frequency in the 30 minutes since the newscast tell me many people were NOT happy to hear that water won't be back Tuesday night as they were originally promised - and a number of them are looking for something to drink: a dozen calls so far about stolen beer.  I suspect the current County Commission should be glad this happened at the end of November and not the end of May or all of them would be looking for work - people wouldn't care who made which bad decision, they would just want change if the next election were only a few months away.  However, some locals have long memories and they will remember for the next election.  Hope those now on the Commission have other opportunities for employment in the future.

---

"Sarah, what smells so good?"
"The beef stew seasoned with white wine..."
"Comfort food!"
"Most certainly.  There's also a banana pudding which just needs the meringue browned..."
"More comfort food!"
"I thought we'd both have a better outlook if we had something better than usual and enough of it to have leftovers for a few days."
"Days of comfort food!  I'd marry you if you were single!"
"I'd marry you for planning to keep our food stocks high enough that we can have things like this with only trips to the pantry, freezer and basement.  The freeze-dried banana slices worked better in the pudding than I expected."
"You rehydrated them with the pudding filling instead of water?"
"Yes.  It took much longer but..."
"That gives them more body so the final product tastes and feels more like it was sliced today."
"Texture sometimes makes a big difference in how food 'tastes'."
"Very true.  How much longer?"
"About 20 minutes - enough time for biscuits or cornbread since the oven is hot."
"Cornbread - any shape."
"That simplifies things, so four ingredients and a fast stir with a fork and it's into the greased and pre-heated cast iron skillet and then the oven."
"You already had the skillet hot?"
"You want cornbread with the stew 95% of the time."
"You know me too well."
"After 20 years, I should."

---

[gipsy]

Fine update. I never did the "you want Fries with that" but I did work in a grocery store.

[gipsy]

Dec 3, 2023 17:30:37 GMT -6 feralferret said:

Link just worked for me.

Gipsy, maybe you didn't hold your mouth just right. Oh, and you forgot to do it while standing on your head.

Sorry but I have never stood on my head so that is out.