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Post by papaof2 on Jan 5, 2024 15:06:40 GMT -6
I think tonight's weather forecast includes a chance of power outages.
Rain. Low 42F. Winds E at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 100%. Rainfall near a half an inch. Locally heavy rainfall possible.
The "locally heavy" tends to pond certain roads which leads to vehicles encountering power poles and it often softens the earth around old trees which the winds drop on power lines.
We're good. Ran the 10% discharge test on the backup power system a week ago and it looked good. With that for the furnace and the fridge plus the gas logs that run on batteries, we'll have all that we need.
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Post by gipsy on Jan 5, 2024 15:25:41 GMT -6
What no snow? That is what they are saying for here but not much. East coast is supposed to get pounded though.
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Post by papaof2 on Jan 5, 2024 17:40:39 GMT -6
Two days ago, the 10 day forecast had snow showers on the 16th but that is now down to "showers" and a low of 30F. If the showers meet the overnight low, that would be freezing rain - but it's not in the forecast (yet?)
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Post by kansasterri on Jan 5, 2024 20:54:32 GMT -6
Light snow today, light snow tomorrow, a day of rest (no snow on Sunday), and then WHAM!!!
Monday and Tuesday should have a fair amount of precipitation, but since the temp is predicted to be 33 degrees it might all fall as rain. OR we might get a foot of snow. Nobody seems sure about the weather on Monday-Tuesday
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Post by feralferret on Jan 5, 2024 23:11:06 GMT -6
Light snow today, light snow tomorrow, a day of rest (no snow on Sunday), and then WHAM!!! Monday and Tuesday should have a fair amount of precipitation, but since the temp is predicted to be 33 degrees it might all fall as rain. OR we might get a foot of snow. Nobody seems sure about the weather on Monday-Tuesday Almost exactly the same here. Schizoid weather Monday through Tuesday with a lot of uncertainty as to how much will be rain and how much will be snow.
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Post by gipsy on Jan 6, 2024 8:10:39 GMT -6
They got it kinda right. We have a white coating on the ground but the grass is poking through, so not very deep.
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Post by CountryGuy on Jan 6, 2024 13:57:23 GMT -6
Here in central PA I've heard calls for 3-6" and 5-7" but these ninnies act like it's a snow-pocalypse. It started here about 12:30 with some steady snow showers. I ran out to get 2 cans filled with ethanol free gas for the snow blower. The one regional convenience store just rebuilt their store in town 6 miles from us and now has E free on several pumps. Price wasn't even terrible, $3.36/ gal and I got another $.03 off using their shopper card. Did see price of 87 was down under $3 at $2.96. Haven't saw that low in a long while.
Anyways, it stepped up snowing and was getting slick on the way home, had to pop the truck in 4hi. Yard is covered, corn field across the road still has a good amount of stubble sticking out. I'd say we have maybe 1.5" they said was to mostly be done here around 6PM. If that holds true then I think we'll be lucky to see 3". Sort of sucks, I love snow and was hoping for a big one. But the heavier stuff in 5-10" range is to be going north and east towards the Poconos and Catskills and up into New England.
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Post by feralferret on Jan 6, 2024 21:56:40 GMT -6
Got about a quarter inch of snow in KC. Looking at a possible 3" to 6" Monday night and Tuesday.
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Post by gipsy on Jan 6, 2024 22:30:30 GMT -6
More here then also
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Post by papaof2 on Jan 7, 2024 0:51:38 GMT -6
Tuesday still looks like a day us to be dressed for bad weather - or just stock up on good snacks and stay inside by the fireplace.
A steady rain in the morning. Showers continuing in the afternoon. Potential for heavy rainfall. High 58F. Winds S at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 100%. 1 to 2 inches of rain expected.
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Post by gipsy on Jan 7, 2024 9:45:50 GMT -6
Keep your floaties handy.
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Post by papaof2 on Jan 7, 2024 16:11:11 GMT -6
Today's winds of 15-18, gusting to 25 have already started om power.
North of us, there are 156 meters out from a tree down.
I expect to see more of that when the rain gets here Monday night.
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Post by gipsy on Jan 7, 2024 18:04:54 GMT -6
They are saying 7 in on Tuesday here.
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Post by techsar on Jan 7, 2024 20:15:03 GMT -6
Wanna trade? They're forecasting thunderstorms with wind gusts to 55mph, 2-5 inches of rain, and possibly tornados.
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Post by papaof2 on Jan 8, 2024 9:02:26 GMT -6
Our latest weather updates: Wind gusts to 45MPH. Potential for flooding rains (Monday night and Tuesday morning). Up to 4 inches of rain. Although the north central Georgia area has some flood plains that have seen residential building for decades, flooding is not a concern for us - we're 200 feet above the nearest running water (creek that ran a mill pre-Civil War). But "distance above flood waters" was an item on our list for the "until they carry us out on a gurney" house we bought about 20 years ago. It was a long list and the house we bought met 90%+ of it - helps to have a trusted real estate agent you've dealt with before and who knows that your list has very little wiggle room. We did look for a LONG time...
Wind Advisory (27 hours)
From Mon 4 pm until Tue 7 pm EST Action Recommended Execute a pre-planned activity identified in the instructions Issued By Atlanta - GA, US, National Weather Service Affected Area Portions of north central, northwest and west central Georgia Description ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY...
WHAT...Southeast winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected.
Rest of the day/night forecasts:
Monday night: Cloudy and windy with periods of rain. Potential for flooding rains. Low 43F. Winds ESE at 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 100%. 1 to 2 inches of rain expected.
Tuesday: Rain early...then remaining cloudy with showers in the afternoon. Potential for flooding rains. High 56F. Winds SSW at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 100%. 1 to 2 inches of rain expected.
Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy. Low 33F. Winds W at 15 to 25 mph. Winds could occasionally gust over 40 mph
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Post by gipsy on Jan 8, 2024 9:41:41 GMT -6
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Post by gipsy on Jan 8, 2024 15:58:05 GMT -6
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Post by gipsy on Jan 8, 2024 16:00:47 GMT -6
Our storm just crossed the Ill. Iowa boarder, so it might be moving faster then they thought. They are saying we might have snow around 9 tonight.
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Post by feralferret on Jan 8, 2024 19:22:53 GMT -6
That's just north of my old stomping grounds.
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Post by techsar on Jan 8, 2024 19:37:54 GMT -6
Southern end of phase one of the storm moved through here, bringing 1.25" hail and rainfall rates of over 12 inches/hour. Winds are still fairly strong (20-25mph) with gusts near 50. Second phase is due to push through around 2 a.m.
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Post by gipsy on Jan 8, 2024 20:41:02 GMT -6
Radar shows us covered up but nothing falling yet.
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Post by papaof2 on Jan 8, 2024 20:52:02 GMT -6
The rain got here around 8PM, so more or less on time ;-) And the rain forecast is serious in many areas:
Flood Watch From Tue 12 am until 7 pm EST
Affected Area Portions of central, east central, north central, northeast, northwest, and west central Georgia, including the following areas, in central Georgia, Butts, Jasper, Monroe and Putnam. In east central Georgia, Greene. In north central Georgia, Barrow, Cherokee, Clayton, Cobb, DeKalb, Douglas, Fayette, Gwinnett, Henry, Morgan, Newton, North Fulton, Rockdale, South Fulton and Walton. In northeast Georgia, Clarke, Jackson, Madison, Oconee and Oglethorpe. In northwest Georgia, Bartow, Carroll, Catoosa, Chattooga, Dade, Floyd, Gordon, Haralson, Murray, Paulding, Polk, Walker and Whitfield. In west central Georgia, Coweta, Harris, Heard, Lamar, Meriwether, Pike, Spalding, Talbot, Troup and Upson
Description ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...
That's maybe the northern 1/3 of the state under some level of flood watch. The "Potential for flooding rains." in the initial forecasts seems to be holding true.
Our power co-op has one outage of 161 meters and the worst of the wind and rain are yet in the future. The other power co-op currently has zero meters out. Georgia Power has a "Severe Weather - Prepare" pop-up on their outage map site:
Severe Weather -- Prepare Severe weather including strong winds and heavy rain is expected to impact parts of Georgia tonight through late Tuesday. We are preparing our crews to respond to potential outages safely and quickly as possible. Please stay weather aware and prepared for possible severe weather impacts.
They currently have 35 outages across the state which affect 1188 meters. You know they won't be up in bucket trucks doing repairs when the wind is gusting to 45MPH so repairs in some areas may be slow. Metro Atlanta has 10 outages affecting 534 meters and the status is "Assessing Condition" - which I suspect may stay in that status until most of the wind is gone. One optimistic outage is near Amicalola, GA with 178 meters out and an ERT of 11:30PM today - they appear to know what that problem is and what's needed to fix it. Near Eton there are 185 meters out with an ERT of midnight. Smyrna, GA has 236 meters out with an ERT of midnight. Kennesaw has 141 meters out with an ERT of 1:15AM tomorrow (Jan 9). Cause is "Severe weather caused widespread outages. Power to most customers will be restored by the ERT shown." South of Atlanta - to the state line, they have 21 total meters out of service, so almost all the current outages are related to the storm.
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Post by papaof2 on Jan 9, 2024 1:13:47 GMT -6
Per the hourly reports from the closest general aviation airport, they've had 0.65 inch of rain between 8PM Monday and 1AM Tuesday. Forecast has 0.15 inch of rain in the current hour. To be followed by 0.04, 0.03, 0.08, 0.29 in the 7AM hour's "Heavy Rain", 0.32, 0.39 in the 9AM hour's "Heavy Rain", 0.26, 0.12, 0.04 in the noon hour and then to Mostly Cloudy. Total of 2.37 inches if the forecast is accurate. And if you need to do adding machine math with a "paper tape" to check as you enter a list of numbers, the Moffsoft FreeCalc includes a "paper tape" mode. That calc (Windows) can be downloaded here: www.moffsoft.com/freecalc.htm Moffsoft Calculator 2 has more features and is $19.95 www.moffsoft.com/moffcalc.htmOur power co-op has one meter out. The other power co-op in the county has 24 meters out with 22 having an ERT of 5AM and the other 2 an ERT of 6AM. Georgia Power has 116 outages affecting 2373 meters - that total continues to climb as the rain and wind do their things. A block of 38 outages affecting 728 meters are "Assessing Condition" and may be that condition most of the night. As are 34 outages affecting 581 meters about 50 miles southeast of the previous block. Metro Atlanta has 34 outages affecting 731 meters and mostly "Assessing Condition". Closer to the GA/AL state line, Carrollton has 2 outages affecting 231 meters - but with an ERT of 4:30AM. And some not-in-the-forecast "Heavy Rain" just started here at 2AM. The metal chimney caps are a very useful way to judge the amount of rain falling by the amount of noise it makes on a metal surface. Less than a minute for that burst of rain but I think some of the forecast "Heavy Rain" may be like the country boy's description of heavy rain which included a cow and a flat rock... So far, not a beep from any UPS or a flicker from any light. I can do without another after midnight event where I see a lightning strike in the distance using one of the networked cameras only for that strike to be the trigger for a 5 minute power outage for our entire substation (1800+ meters).
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Post by papaof2 on Jan 9, 2024 3:37:54 GMT -6
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Post by papaof2 on Jan 9, 2024 9:03:03 GMT -6
The nearest general aviation airport (about 5 air miles) stopped updating their online hourly records some time during the 7AM hour. At that point, they had recorded 1.65 inches of rain. The next nearest general aviation airport (about 20 air miles) recorded 2.57 inches between 8PM yesterday and 9AM today. In either set of records, there's been a lot of rain and some lightning.
Our power co-op has 15 outages affecting 324 meters with the largest block being 145 meters that have been out 7 hours and 20 minutes. Second to that is 55 meters now out for 5 hours and 11 minutes.
The other co-op in the county has 35 meters out 6 hours 30 minutes with an ERT of 11:30AM and 23 meters out 1 hour 30 minutes with an ERT of 12:30PM.
Georgia Power has 688 outages with 28,283 meters out. Metro Atlanta has 6172 of those meters. The outages cover the state and the storm is still dropping rain and blowing wind. Lots of locations with 50+ outages in the state. Multiple blocks of more than 1000 meters out. Almost everything is "Assessing Condition" until you're down to the individual outages and some of them are "Assessing Condition".
As yet, no UPS beeps or light flickers for us.
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