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Post by papaof2 on Jan 13, 2022 1:47:38 GMT -6
For the weekend in the Sunny South:
Morning rain followed by a mix of rain and snow in the afternoon. Some sleet or freezing rain possible. High 37F. Winds ENE at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of precip 100%. Snow accumulations less than one inch.
Mainly cloudy with snow showers around before midnight. Low 27F. Winds WNW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 50%.
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Rain, snow, sleet, freezing rain plus wind. Expect "something nasty this way comes".
Head to the store for bread, milk and eggs ;-)
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Post by papaof2 on Jan 13, 2022 3:09:48 GMT -6
And an hour or so later, the updated forecast is:
Windy with a wintry mix in the morning, becoming all snow in the afternoon. High 36F. Winds ENE at 20 to 30 mph. Chance of precip 100%. Snow and ice accumulating 1 to 3 inches. Higher wind gusts possible.
It just gets more beautiful ;-) "Snow and ice accumulating 1 to 3 inches." sounds like real fun...
36F with 30MPH wind is a windchill of 23 - and that's the high for the day. Don't you want to move to the Sunny South?
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Post by papaof2 on Jan 13, 2022 3:47:40 GMT -6
30 minutes later, the forecast is back to 1 inch of snow/ice. Wish I got paid for throwing darts and reporting the results...
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Post by papaof2 on Jan 13, 2022 16:20:37 GMT -6
12 hours later:
Windy with a wintry mix in the morning turning to all snow in the afternoon. Temps nearly steady in the low to mid 30s. Winds NE at 20 to 30 mph. Chance of precip 100%. Snow and ice accumulating 1 to 3 inches. Higher wind gusts possible.
The high for the day has also changed: from 37 to 34.
I think there's a theme song for this - with lyrics of "Slip-Slidin' Away"...
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Post by papaof2 on Jan 13, 2022 18:23:46 GMT -6
Saturday night now has an inch of rain and a low of 30. I think those might also contribute to Sunday's wintry mix - or at least provide a good base of ice for it...
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Post by papaof2 on Jan 14, 2022 2:56:38 GMT -6
Now there's a Special Weather Statement:
...SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY OVER NORTH GEORGIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
...BLACK ICE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...
A strong upper level storm system will combine with very cold temperatures aloft and near the ground to produce wintry precipitation this weekend.
The rain will begin mixing with and changing to snow after midnight on Saturday night and switch to mainly snow over far northeast Georgia with a mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow over the rest of north Georgia during the day Sunday. Light snow or snow flurries will be ending from west to east Sunday evening.
The heaviest snow will fall on Sunday over far northeast Georgia, where a Winter Storm Watch is in effect and up to 6 inches of snow is expected with higher amounts possible at elevations above 2000 feet. Elsewhere across north Georgia north of I-20, up to 2 inches of sleet and snow and up to two-tenths (0.20) of an inch of ice will be possible. South of I-20, there may be some snow or sleet mixed with the rain but little to no accumulation is expected.
After the precipitation clears out Sunday night, temperatures will fall into the 20s and any remaining liquid runoff from earlier precipitation will likely freeze on roadways across north Georgia. These icy spots will persist well into Monday morning.
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That's their long-winded way of saying: If you plan to drive in the Northern half of Georgia, wait until Tuesday ;-)
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Post by gipsy on Jan 14, 2022 9:30:11 GMT -6
Sounds like a plan to me
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Post by papaof2 on Jan 15, 2022 16:33:56 GMT -6
Today's addition to the forecast:
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST SUNDAY... WHAT... Sustained winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. Locally higher gusts to 60 mph possible
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20MPH wind gives about a 10 degree drop when the temperature is 40F. Although the overnight low of 34 is above freezing, the windchill rapidly drops into the 20's after midnight. 8AM's 35 degrees has 24MPH wind which gives a windchill of 23. The 0.1 inch of rain in most of those hours will definitely be freezing to bridges, overpasses and probably trees and power lines. Those "gusts up to 50 mph" take limbs off trees and can take trees down so they might be as much of a hazard to power as the ice.
The temperature will drop as you go North from us, so I expect there will be large outages and many fender-benders for a lot of miles. Our forecast snow is "up to 2 inches" (NWS) but just over an inch per weather.com's hourly forecast. 20 miles north of us, the weather.com forecast is an inch and a half. The NWS ice forecast is 0.1 inch but both snow and ice have the "locally heavier amounts" modifier.
We're good for the duration, with ingredients for a large pot of Taco Soup sitting on the counter and soon to be on to simmer. Alternate power? Check. Alternate heat? Check. Alternate lighting? Check. Alternate cooking? Check. Backup water? Check. Something to read? Check. Hot beverages? Coffee, tea and hot chocolate so that's a check.
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Post by papaof2 on Jan 15, 2022 18:00:16 GMT -6
Even weather.com is doing CYA, vacillating between "less than one inch" of snow and the current forecast, seemingly at random.
"Windy with periods of rain and snow in the morning turning to snow in the afternoon. Some sleet may mix in. Temps nearly steady in the mid 30s. Winds NE at 25 to 35 mph. Chance of precip 100%. Snow accumulating 1 to 3 inches."
In 24 hours, I'll be able to tell you which guess was correct ;-)
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Post by gipsy on Jan 15, 2022 21:38:12 GMT -6
Guess is the correct word
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Post by papaof2 on Jan 16, 2022 6:26:49 GMT -6
We've had small amounts of rain each hour during the night (largest so far was 0.1 inch) and some wind (highest so far was 25MPH, gusting to 37MPH). Our snow is forecast to start at 10AM with about 1 inch accumulation over 5 hours.
Our power co-op has 378 meters out, all West of us and the biggest outages (100+ meters) are North of us. So far, we've not even had a beep from a UPS. The other co-op (serves areas North of us) has 1550 meters out across three counties, with the largest block being 744. Georgia Power has 36,264 meters out across the state with 21,660 in metro Atlanta, blocks of 7700 and 3200 in the Northeast corner of the state (where the most snow/ice is, at this hour), and blocks of 1017, 686, 465 and 329 (and lots of smaller outages) elsewhere in the state. A few outages have ERT's around 9AM. The rest are "Assessing Condition" and likely to stay in that status for a while.
If we were 5 miles West or 15 miles North of where we are, we might be in the dark. We did make a point of moving some things that the wind might affect well before the front of the storm got here, so the noises from the wind have been the wind chime on the screened porch and the roar when the wind gusts across the chimney just right.
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Post by papaof2 on Jan 16, 2022 19:17:57 GMT -6
Our power co-op has no meters out. The other power co-op in the county has 37 meters out with ERTs of 8PM and 10PM. Georgia Power has restored 120,000 meters and still has 14,340 out with 12,716 of those in the Northeast corner of the state - where the most snow/ice is. Most of the outages are "Assessing Condition" or "Re-Evaluating Condition" except for a small (25 meters) outage in the Northwest corner of the state - that one had 6PM tomorrow.
The local news had video from Dekalb County (old, established neighborhoods with a lot of big trees) with power lines down across yards and vehicles - and power crews that had been working 14 hours.
We watched the serious snowfall in the 10 and 11AM hours but the biggest accumulation was on the plasticized fabric cover on the gas grill - the temperature hovered around 34 - 35 here, so nothing on grass, shrubs or trees and nothing visible on the roads. We had one hit on the power a little after 9AM - UPS on the North wall complained and a light on the South wall went dark, along with needing to reset the clocks on the stove and the microwave oven.
There's a black ice warning for overnight - probably good that this is a hooliday weekend.
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Post by papaof2 on Jan 16, 2022 20:52:37 GMT -6
Our power co-op is now showing 2040 meters out, but the outage map only has markers for 715, 218 and 90 meters out. That adds up to 1023, so where are the other thousand outages?
The other power co-op in the county has no meters out.
Georgia Power still has 11,532 meters out - temperatures for the Northern half of the state have been mid-30s or lower for about 24 hours, with windchills that are 8-10 degrees colder and Monday will be no warmer. The biggest block is 357 outages affecting 10,548 meters in the Northeast corner of the state, with the ERTs still being "Assessing Condition".
Beautiful day in the neighborhood, indeed...
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Post by papaof2 on Jan 16, 2022 23:40:55 GMT -6
Wonder of wonders! Our power co-op's outage page says there are 234 meters out and it has markers for 99, 90 and 45 meters.
The other co-op has one meter out with and ERT of 04:30.
Georgia Power has 11,849 meters out, with 10,788 of those in the Northeast corner of the state and almost 1000 in metro Atlanta and the ERT is "Assessing Condition". I wonder how much of the increase from 2 hours ago is "new" damage and how much might be from people going back home from Momma's house and finding that they don't have power?
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Post by papaof2 on Jan 17, 2022 20:46:45 GMT -6
Each of the local power co-ops has one meter out - probably not storm related. Georgia Power has 1880 meters out, with 1809 (96%) in the Northeast corner of the state. The ERTs with a time are listed as 2PM Tuesday, 10PM Tuesday and 6PM Wednesday but most are Re-Evaluating Condition. Parts of the area are heavily wooded so there could be as much or more logging work as lineman work for some of the repairs.
Solar power, unless it has good autonomy (think: very big batteries), wouldn't help much after more than 48 hours of partly cloudy, mostly cloudy, overcast, rain and snow. And if you've had snow accumulation, you'll need to clean those solar panels before they'll produce power. The forecast for that area? Mostly Sunny, Partly Cloudy, Rain, Rain/Snow, Partly Cloudy. Not exactly promising for solar power.
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Post by gipsy on Jan 17, 2022 21:17:31 GMT -6
The exact science of weather forecasting hard at work
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