Post by papaof2 on Dec 8, 2021 3:40:08 GMT -6
I posted a bit about Georgia Power having an outage that had a status of "Re-Evaluating Condition" for a number of hours. Here's where my muse took that:
Wednesday, 17 November, 4:50PM
OK, power's now been off beyond the 4:30PM Estimated Restoration Time (ERT) that Georgia Power's outage page originally guessed at. It'll be dark soon, so let's see what they're guessing now.
Hmm. Page is a little slow coming up. Is that from the internet being slow out here with all the folks now home from their 7:30 to 3:30 shift at the carpet mill? Probably not, as I'm one of the few people with backup power that doesn't immediately require a generator. I have lots of backup for the home network (U-verse "terminal", fast wi-fi router, 16 port gigabit switch, TV + DVR), using free UPS units from craigslist.org when the original battery died. Many owners weren't knowledgable enough to research "UPS battery" online and find a better price than the manufacturer wanted so they just tossed the old UPS and bought a new one. I'm cheap ("frugal" in polite conversation) so I look to stretch my limited income in any way possible. That $170 pure sine wave UPS? It cost me all of $43, including tax and shipping, for the replacement batteries or about 1/4 of the original price cheap protection for the 50" plasma TV.
Anyway, the outage page is now up, it still shows 395 meters out and the ERT is now "Re-Evaluating Condition". "Re-Evaluating"? What happened to the original ERT of 4:30PM? Just as well I did the usual process of switching essential things over to the solar backup system 30 minutes into the initial outage. We'll have power from the battery bank until morning - with today's high of 69F (warm for this late in November), an overnight low of 48F and tomorrow's high of 73F, the furnace won't run much overnight and tomorrow's forecast is sunny so there will be some solar power to recharge the batteries if Georgia Power doesn't get things fixed...
FLASH!
BANG!
FLICKER!
Very good thing the fridge, freezer and furnace were on the backup power system. I'm not sure what the power repair crew did, but the LED bulb in the table lamp near me just became a brilliant flashbulb and there's melted plastic running down the side of the lamp. Grab that by the shade and move it off the wooden end table and onto the fireplace hearth so the melted plastic does no harm. Not much I can do about that nice pure sine wave UPS as pieces of it are now scattered across the room. Good that I'm in some of my heavy jeans or I might have jagged pieces of black plastic sticking out of my legs. The flickering of the other LED bulbs didn't last long and a quick check doesn't find any others that melted.
What did the repair crew do that could have caus...
Sirens on the main road. Guess that tells me Fire/Rescue is on its way to the outage site. As close as the sound is, I'll guess they're headed to the fenced mini-substation with the "Danger! High Voltage!" signs up where our little road meets the four lane. That level of power glitch doesn't bode well for repair time and needing Fire/Rescue probably means injury and/or further damage. Good that we keep about 20 gallons of treated fuel for the little inverter generator. If we have some sunshine, we probably won't be using a gallon of gas a day while we wait for repairs to be completed so I think we're covered. The water tower for this part of the county is a good two miles the other way from that tiny substation so maybe they still have power for the pumps that keep that tank filled. I think there's a note somewhere about the tank being big enough to provide "near normal" water to the area for three days. I should put the WaterBOB in the bathtub in the basement and fill it. Be good to have 80 gallons of potable water to fall back on. When I learn more about the outage, I may not have needed to do anything but better to have and not need than to need and not have. Think I'll go check the little generator after I fill the WaterBOB.
---
The gen started on the second pull and was happy running a 1500 watt heater. It should be fine when or if we need it. The stored gasoline is down to 15 gallons - been doing lots of leaf collection with the riding mower this month - so I need to check for a reasonably close gas station which still has power. First though - has the ERT changed? Laptop gives me a "No internet connection" error. OK, AT&T's U-verse is down. Now to my cell phone and switch from "wifi" to "data". It's also a little slow connecting - maybe lots of people out here now only have cell phone access to the internet? The Georgia Power outage page is slower than before - and it's decorated for Christmas! There are at least a dozen outage markers near me. What's the status of the outage that directly affects us?
It's now 2351 meters? And the ERT is still "Re-Evaluating Condition". What did they break? Is it worth driving that far to see if I can find out more? Maybe drive close enough to see how many and what type vehicles are there and then use the little drone to fly over the incident area slowly and take a picture every five seconds. The batteries will last longer doing that than trying to record video and much longer than trying to transmit video back to me.
---
I could only get within a half mile of the site. Fire trucks, ambulances, Sheriff's cruisers - and a BATFE truck?? Fortunately, the little drone is very quiet so it wasn't noticed over the noise of the pumper truck getting water from the nearest pond. I'm now back at the house and copying the pictures from the drone's memory card to my laptop. All the lines into and out of the site are down because all the metal poles are down - that must have been some explosion! There's still some smoke drifting up from a hole on the side of the site that's away from the road. Even with 4k resolution, the pictures don't tell me a great deal with just a cursory glance. Is it worth the 100+ watts to run the 50" TV? Maybe, but just long enough to scroll through the 50 or so pictures one time.
---
Picture 20211117-1720-5308.jpg shows multiple smoke sources and the next three pics show damage to transformers around the hole that's smoking. Depending on their age and the manufacturer, some big power transformers were filled with an oil that can become flammable under certain circumstances. Did one of the transformers explode and spread flaming oil across the site? Will they have to replace the entire mini-substation? How long will that take? I think they may have "Re-Evaluating Condition" as the status for quite a while as things are investigated - and they can't start cleaning up until the BATFE crew decides whether it was equipment failure or an act of terrorism. That decision may require sending bits to their DC labs for analysis so they can look for explosive residue. How many days for that?
I should check the outage map for the outer edges of this outage and then check for gas stations which still have power. The feed and seed typically has the best prices on their stock of older and easier to use five gallon fuel cans so go pick up four cans and then go buy 20 gallons of unleaded that I'll take home and treat immediately. That'll be another 20 days or so of power if there is no sun. We're halfway through November, so 20 days of fuel from today's purchases plus the 15 days already stored gets me through Christmas even if we have zero sun. I also need to take the empty five gallon can that's in the shed - that'll bring it up to fuel for 40 days and nights. 40 days and nights? That reminds me of a Biblical disaster - something I really hope isn't happening. Some of the people out here have at least a small garden - but gardens have long since stopped producing food - and those people may keep a few chickens but not many have 40 days of food and water available - or 40 days of power to run the furnace.
We're an old retired couple living on Social Security and a small IRA so we'll not be taking in a dozen folks to feed. We have food stored for several months for the two of us but that would be gone in a few days if we tried to feed a platoon - or even a squad. Why am I thinking in military terms? Something triggered by my thoughts about terrorism earlier? Need to let my subconscious chew on that for a while. Meanwhile, my better half has supper in progress - easy enough when there's power for some LED lighting in the kitchen, the stove is LP and can be lit with a long-nosed "grill lighter" and the fridge and freezer have power for cooling as needed. Smells like lintel and Polish sausage soup...
---
I'm fed, the table has been cleared and the dishes are soaking in the sink: they'll be washed by hand as the undercounter dishwasher isn't powered by the backup system. There's a white truck with flashing yellow lights making its way slowly down the road, stopping at every house and trailer. I'm willing to bet it's a Georgia Power truck bearing bad news. Probably weeks to rebuild the substation and get power back up. I did get the solar-charged AM/FM/weather/shortwave radio from its sunny window and the FM station in Clayton says there are some places offering lodging for those without power: The Lake Rabun Hotel and Restaurant, River Campground and The Cascades Inn. Those places all have big diesel generators for backup power so they won't be affected if the outage spreads or Georgia Power has to shut down more of the local grid while doing repairs.
knock! knock!
"Yes?"
"Sir, I'm Tom Galloway of Georgia Power. The damage to the substation... You have power?"
"We have limited power so we have lights, and power for the fridge, freezer and furnace. We're OK for several weeks with a combination of solar power and a small inverter generator."
"You and one other family so far..."
"The Thompsons."
"How'd you know?"
"I designed the waterwheel-powered system they use. The creek runs all year, so they always have a fallback power source."
"As I told them, you might get a Christmas present of power but we're not sure if the factory in South Korea can make the transformers and get them shipped that quickly. It could be another eight or ten weeks more than that."
"Then my thought earlier today of this being a Biblical disaster lasting 40 days and nights was a bit optimistic."
"40 days and...? Oh, I get it - Noah and the flood. Perhaps not as bad because fewer people are affected and you probably won't need a boat. Perhaps worse for some people because County Water has lost power to the punps for the tower in this quadrant of the county. They can divert water from the rest of the system but the volume and pressure will be reduced and there is a 'Boil water' order for the next week because of the reverse water flow in some of the piping."
"You're just a fountain of good news."
"I wish. You don't seem surprised by any of what I'm telling you."
"I'm not. When an LED bulb melted and a UPS exploded from a surge an hour into the outage and the ERT became 'Re-Evaluating Condition', I was reasonably certain that something bad had happened and I planned based on that."
"You've aware of the places offering shelter?"
"We are. Other than having gone out to buy 20 gallons worth of new gas cans and 25 gallons of gas, we were ready for this."
"How?"
"Always keep a multi-week pantry and freezer. Have canned and dried foods from the garden which are stored in the basement plus a lot of beans and rice which are cheap, nutritious and last a long time. Usually have 20 gallons of gas on hand for the lawn equipment and the generator - the inverter gen only needs a gallon a day, less when there's a lot of sun and we are running on the solar system. We live well out from town, power is delivered via aerial lines and many of the roads are tree-lined. Wind, freezing rain, snow and vehicle accidents can take the power out at any time so we plan for that. We heat and cook with LP so we have that ability without grid power."
"What about water?"
"Two electric pumps in the well - AC for normal use and DC which can be powered from the battery bank on the solar system - plus a hand pump."
"How rich are you?"
"Not rich. Just been making the choice of 'luxury now' versus 'having what we need later' for a long time. We won't be watching the big TV unless the gen is running. Without grid power, the landline phone, TV and internet are gone so we'll use the cell phones as needed for email and other internet communications. We texted the family that power was likely to be off for a while so only the cell phones would be available. Voice is sometime spotty out here but text always works - if often slowly."
"How can you be so calm about the power being off for a month or more?"
"We have food, water, shelter and heat. What more do we need?"
"You can live without social media?"
"Most of it is so biased that there's little of interest or use for us. She reads - history and historical fiction. I write 'The End of Civilization As We Know It' books. We need very little power for her Kindle or my laptop."
"You have a link to those books?"
"On my business card."
"Expect to sell a lot of books if practicing what you preach works as well for me as it appears to for you."
"Always happy to have new readers. Any idea what caused the initial problem or what caused it to escalate?"
"One of the BATFE guys thought there was a scent of explosives but he didn't say what type of explosives. If what he smelled was ANFO, there's a field that's being cleared and it looked like they were blasting the stumps out - lots faster than using a dozer or grinding them."
"They swabbed everything?"
"Everything they could find and they took all the pieces they could carry away for 'further analysis'."
"So maybe into the new year before they have an answer?"
"Maybe. My guess is that the escalation was from a stupid error made by a new guy - some relative of the manager for this maintenace district. I think the guy lied about his training or he took some shortcuts because he was lazy - we may never know because they airlifted him to the Trauma Center at Grady Hospital in Atlanta and they don't know if he'll make it. Unless our guys find something definitive during the cleanup, I'll guess the new guy connected the incoming 74kV feed to the 4200 volt output side of one of the transformers and burned up a lot of consumer electrical and electronic equipment as well as exploding a couple of big, ground-mount transformers."
"They're made in South Korea?"
"One of them. That's the one we might get in four weeks so that's the 'might be a Christmas present'. The other one was made in China and the original construction and shipping took five months. It's a common transformer for us - we buy three or four a year, so I'd think they might have parts in stock to make one quickly but, so far, no response to an 'Emergency Order'."
"You're just full of 'happy'."
"Wish I was. Anyone as well set as you are needs to know the worst side of the news. Most people have the flashlight on their phone and maybe one candle and that's it - they only get the 'might be Christmas' part of the bad news. 'Might be' can always be extended with 'shipping problems' or 'because of Covid'."
"Good luck with that."
---
"Jack, you seem to have made a sale without even trying."
"So it seems, Sarah. Is there any of the chocolate silk pie left? We could celebrate possibly finding a new market."
"Two slices left and celebrating seems a good way to end a not-so-good day."
"Earl Gray?"
"Make mine decaf."
"As you wish."
---
The End
Wednesday, 17 November, 4:50PM
OK, power's now been off beyond the 4:30PM Estimated Restoration Time (ERT) that Georgia Power's outage page originally guessed at. It'll be dark soon, so let's see what they're guessing now.
Hmm. Page is a little slow coming up. Is that from the internet being slow out here with all the folks now home from their 7:30 to 3:30 shift at the carpet mill? Probably not, as I'm one of the few people with backup power that doesn't immediately require a generator. I have lots of backup for the home network (U-verse "terminal", fast wi-fi router, 16 port gigabit switch, TV + DVR), using free UPS units from craigslist.org when the original battery died. Many owners weren't knowledgable enough to research "UPS battery" online and find a better price than the manufacturer wanted so they just tossed the old UPS and bought a new one. I'm cheap ("frugal" in polite conversation) so I look to stretch my limited income in any way possible. That $170 pure sine wave UPS? It cost me all of $43, including tax and shipping, for the replacement batteries or about 1/4 of the original price cheap protection for the 50" plasma TV.
Anyway, the outage page is now up, it still shows 395 meters out and the ERT is now "Re-Evaluating Condition". "Re-Evaluating"? What happened to the original ERT of 4:30PM? Just as well I did the usual process of switching essential things over to the solar backup system 30 minutes into the initial outage. We'll have power from the battery bank until morning - with today's high of 69F (warm for this late in November), an overnight low of 48F and tomorrow's high of 73F, the furnace won't run much overnight and tomorrow's forecast is sunny so there will be some solar power to recharge the batteries if Georgia Power doesn't get things fixed...
FLASH!
BANG!
FLICKER!
Very good thing the fridge, freezer and furnace were on the backup power system. I'm not sure what the power repair crew did, but the LED bulb in the table lamp near me just became a brilliant flashbulb and there's melted plastic running down the side of the lamp. Grab that by the shade and move it off the wooden end table and onto the fireplace hearth so the melted plastic does no harm. Not much I can do about that nice pure sine wave UPS as pieces of it are now scattered across the room. Good that I'm in some of my heavy jeans or I might have jagged pieces of black plastic sticking out of my legs. The flickering of the other LED bulbs didn't last long and a quick check doesn't find any others that melted.
What did the repair crew do that could have caus...
Sirens on the main road. Guess that tells me Fire/Rescue is on its way to the outage site. As close as the sound is, I'll guess they're headed to the fenced mini-substation with the "Danger! High Voltage!" signs up where our little road meets the four lane. That level of power glitch doesn't bode well for repair time and needing Fire/Rescue probably means injury and/or further damage. Good that we keep about 20 gallons of treated fuel for the little inverter generator. If we have some sunshine, we probably won't be using a gallon of gas a day while we wait for repairs to be completed so I think we're covered. The water tower for this part of the county is a good two miles the other way from that tiny substation so maybe they still have power for the pumps that keep that tank filled. I think there's a note somewhere about the tank being big enough to provide "near normal" water to the area for three days. I should put the WaterBOB in the bathtub in the basement and fill it. Be good to have 80 gallons of potable water to fall back on. When I learn more about the outage, I may not have needed to do anything but better to have and not need than to need and not have. Think I'll go check the little generator after I fill the WaterBOB.
---
The gen started on the second pull and was happy running a 1500 watt heater. It should be fine when or if we need it. The stored gasoline is down to 15 gallons - been doing lots of leaf collection with the riding mower this month - so I need to check for a reasonably close gas station which still has power. First though - has the ERT changed? Laptop gives me a "No internet connection" error. OK, AT&T's U-verse is down. Now to my cell phone and switch from "wifi" to "data". It's also a little slow connecting - maybe lots of people out here now only have cell phone access to the internet? The Georgia Power outage page is slower than before - and it's decorated for Christmas! There are at least a dozen outage markers near me. What's the status of the outage that directly affects us?
It's now 2351 meters? And the ERT is still "Re-Evaluating Condition". What did they break? Is it worth driving that far to see if I can find out more? Maybe drive close enough to see how many and what type vehicles are there and then use the little drone to fly over the incident area slowly and take a picture every five seconds. The batteries will last longer doing that than trying to record video and much longer than trying to transmit video back to me.
---
I could only get within a half mile of the site. Fire trucks, ambulances, Sheriff's cruisers - and a BATFE truck?? Fortunately, the little drone is very quiet so it wasn't noticed over the noise of the pumper truck getting water from the nearest pond. I'm now back at the house and copying the pictures from the drone's memory card to my laptop. All the lines into and out of the site are down because all the metal poles are down - that must have been some explosion! There's still some smoke drifting up from a hole on the side of the site that's away from the road. Even with 4k resolution, the pictures don't tell me a great deal with just a cursory glance. Is it worth the 100+ watts to run the 50" TV? Maybe, but just long enough to scroll through the 50 or so pictures one time.
---
Picture 20211117-1720-5308.jpg shows multiple smoke sources and the next three pics show damage to transformers around the hole that's smoking. Depending on their age and the manufacturer, some big power transformers were filled with an oil that can become flammable under certain circumstances. Did one of the transformers explode and spread flaming oil across the site? Will they have to replace the entire mini-substation? How long will that take? I think they may have "Re-Evaluating Condition" as the status for quite a while as things are investigated - and they can't start cleaning up until the BATFE crew decides whether it was equipment failure or an act of terrorism. That decision may require sending bits to their DC labs for analysis so they can look for explosive residue. How many days for that?
I should check the outage map for the outer edges of this outage and then check for gas stations which still have power. The feed and seed typically has the best prices on their stock of older and easier to use five gallon fuel cans so go pick up four cans and then go buy 20 gallons of unleaded that I'll take home and treat immediately. That'll be another 20 days or so of power if there is no sun. We're halfway through November, so 20 days of fuel from today's purchases plus the 15 days already stored gets me through Christmas even if we have zero sun. I also need to take the empty five gallon can that's in the shed - that'll bring it up to fuel for 40 days and nights. 40 days and nights? That reminds me of a Biblical disaster - something I really hope isn't happening. Some of the people out here have at least a small garden - but gardens have long since stopped producing food - and those people may keep a few chickens but not many have 40 days of food and water available - or 40 days of power to run the furnace.
We're an old retired couple living on Social Security and a small IRA so we'll not be taking in a dozen folks to feed. We have food stored for several months for the two of us but that would be gone in a few days if we tried to feed a platoon - or even a squad. Why am I thinking in military terms? Something triggered by my thoughts about terrorism earlier? Need to let my subconscious chew on that for a while. Meanwhile, my better half has supper in progress - easy enough when there's power for some LED lighting in the kitchen, the stove is LP and can be lit with a long-nosed "grill lighter" and the fridge and freezer have power for cooling as needed. Smells like lintel and Polish sausage soup...
---
I'm fed, the table has been cleared and the dishes are soaking in the sink: they'll be washed by hand as the undercounter dishwasher isn't powered by the backup system. There's a white truck with flashing yellow lights making its way slowly down the road, stopping at every house and trailer. I'm willing to bet it's a Georgia Power truck bearing bad news. Probably weeks to rebuild the substation and get power back up. I did get the solar-charged AM/FM/weather/shortwave radio from its sunny window and the FM station in Clayton says there are some places offering lodging for those without power: The Lake Rabun Hotel and Restaurant, River Campground and The Cascades Inn. Those places all have big diesel generators for backup power so they won't be affected if the outage spreads or Georgia Power has to shut down more of the local grid while doing repairs.
knock! knock!
"Yes?"
"Sir, I'm Tom Galloway of Georgia Power. The damage to the substation... You have power?"
"We have limited power so we have lights, and power for the fridge, freezer and furnace. We're OK for several weeks with a combination of solar power and a small inverter generator."
"You and one other family so far..."
"The Thompsons."
"How'd you know?"
"I designed the waterwheel-powered system they use. The creek runs all year, so they always have a fallback power source."
"As I told them, you might get a Christmas present of power but we're not sure if the factory in South Korea can make the transformers and get them shipped that quickly. It could be another eight or ten weeks more than that."
"Then my thought earlier today of this being a Biblical disaster lasting 40 days and nights was a bit optimistic."
"40 days and...? Oh, I get it - Noah and the flood. Perhaps not as bad because fewer people are affected and you probably won't need a boat. Perhaps worse for some people because County Water has lost power to the punps for the tower in this quadrant of the county. They can divert water from the rest of the system but the volume and pressure will be reduced and there is a 'Boil water' order for the next week because of the reverse water flow in some of the piping."
"You're just a fountain of good news."
"I wish. You don't seem surprised by any of what I'm telling you."
"I'm not. When an LED bulb melted and a UPS exploded from a surge an hour into the outage and the ERT became 'Re-Evaluating Condition', I was reasonably certain that something bad had happened and I planned based on that."
"You've aware of the places offering shelter?"
"We are. Other than having gone out to buy 20 gallons worth of new gas cans and 25 gallons of gas, we were ready for this."
"How?"
"Always keep a multi-week pantry and freezer. Have canned and dried foods from the garden which are stored in the basement plus a lot of beans and rice which are cheap, nutritious and last a long time. Usually have 20 gallons of gas on hand for the lawn equipment and the generator - the inverter gen only needs a gallon a day, less when there's a lot of sun and we are running on the solar system. We live well out from town, power is delivered via aerial lines and many of the roads are tree-lined. Wind, freezing rain, snow and vehicle accidents can take the power out at any time so we plan for that. We heat and cook with LP so we have that ability without grid power."
"What about water?"
"Two electric pumps in the well - AC for normal use and DC which can be powered from the battery bank on the solar system - plus a hand pump."
"How rich are you?"
"Not rich. Just been making the choice of 'luxury now' versus 'having what we need later' for a long time. We won't be watching the big TV unless the gen is running. Without grid power, the landline phone, TV and internet are gone so we'll use the cell phones as needed for email and other internet communications. We texted the family that power was likely to be off for a while so only the cell phones would be available. Voice is sometime spotty out here but text always works - if often slowly."
"How can you be so calm about the power being off for a month or more?"
"We have food, water, shelter and heat. What more do we need?"
"You can live without social media?"
"Most of it is so biased that there's little of interest or use for us. She reads - history and historical fiction. I write 'The End of Civilization As We Know It' books. We need very little power for her Kindle or my laptop."
"You have a link to those books?"
"On my business card."
"Expect to sell a lot of books if practicing what you preach works as well for me as it appears to for you."
"Always happy to have new readers. Any idea what caused the initial problem or what caused it to escalate?"
"One of the BATFE guys thought there was a scent of explosives but he didn't say what type of explosives. If what he smelled was ANFO, there's a field that's being cleared and it looked like they were blasting the stumps out - lots faster than using a dozer or grinding them."
"They swabbed everything?"
"Everything they could find and they took all the pieces they could carry away for 'further analysis'."
"So maybe into the new year before they have an answer?"
"Maybe. My guess is that the escalation was from a stupid error made by a new guy - some relative of the manager for this maintenace district. I think the guy lied about his training or he took some shortcuts because he was lazy - we may never know because they airlifted him to the Trauma Center at Grady Hospital in Atlanta and they don't know if he'll make it. Unless our guys find something definitive during the cleanup, I'll guess the new guy connected the incoming 74kV feed to the 4200 volt output side of one of the transformers and burned up a lot of consumer electrical and electronic equipment as well as exploding a couple of big, ground-mount transformers."
"They're made in South Korea?"
"One of them. That's the one we might get in four weeks so that's the 'might be a Christmas present'. The other one was made in China and the original construction and shipping took five months. It's a common transformer for us - we buy three or four a year, so I'd think they might have parts in stock to make one quickly but, so far, no response to an 'Emergency Order'."
"You're just full of 'happy'."
"Wish I was. Anyone as well set as you are needs to know the worst side of the news. Most people have the flashlight on their phone and maybe one candle and that's it - they only get the 'might be Christmas' part of the bad news. 'Might be' can always be extended with 'shipping problems' or 'because of Covid'."
"Good luck with that."
---
"Jack, you seem to have made a sale without even trying."
"So it seems, Sarah. Is there any of the chocolate silk pie left? We could celebrate possibly finding a new market."
"Two slices left and celebrating seems a good way to end a not-so-good day."
"Earl Gray?"
"Make mine decaf."
"As you wish."
---
The End
