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Post by nancy1340 on Nov 10, 2013 0:12:29 GMT -6
Thank you.
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jackorchuck
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Post by jackorchuck on Nov 10, 2013 5:42:21 GMT -6
I am still enjoying this story written by a very talented writer, Thank you.
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Post by patience on Nov 10, 2013 9:19:08 GMT -6
CHAPTER 73 Thanksgiving, 2016
Relieved and happy, Matthew sat by Emily as she nursed Melanie Claire, their new baby girl. Matthew had hurried to fetch Vickie Hoskins on his bicycle, urging her to hurry. Vickie knew there was no big rush. First babies always took longer, so she tried to calm him down. Melanie Claire Nichols had taken her own sweet time, finally arriving late that evening after a long and arduous labor. Emily was exhausted, and Matthew was a nervous wreck, but the baby was oblivious and slept quietly on her mother's chest after her first meal. Matthew had done the chores hurriedly that evening. Thankfully, he didn't forget anything, tending to their own livestock while Bob Clemmons fed Ronnie's cattle, then the sows who were also expecting. They sat on the porch and passed the time as best they could. Bob was on edge, too, until he and Matthew had heard the first squall from the new baby, and ran inside to greet her. Now they relaxed at the kitchen table with a bottle of Gerald's wine and talked about what they needed to do the next day. _____________
Two weeks later Gerald held their traditional Thanksgiving dinner in his shop building. His tractor and other equipment sat outside, getting a light dusting of wet snow, melting as it hit. People arrived a family at a time and assembled their food contributions on the tables inside. Talk centered on the new baby girl for the women, and congratulations to Matthew from the men for a while. Silently, during a prayer of thanks before the meal, individuals gave thanks for the food awaiting them, remembering when they didn't know where their next meal was coming from. Then they began to fill plates, eat, and visit with friends and neighbors while the food and warmth helped everyone relax. Mike and Todd were celebrating the success of the new wood gasifier that they had operating. It was mounted in the bed of the old truck Todd found and had made a few trial trips. Today they were making plans to move parts of an old sawmill to Mike's shop for restoration. Todd had found it 7 or 6 miles away in a hollow north and west of them near the river, and had some trouble locating the owner. The old man was glad to trade it off for credit at Todd's store. It had taken Todd, Mike, and Charlie Allen a week to get it disassembled and the metal parts ready to load onto Todd's truck and trailer. Mike had made careful drawings with measurements of the machinery before they took it apart, then ordered oak timber from the sawmill in the valley to build new framework. Putting all that together would occupy most of the winter, made possible only by Todd having horses that could navigate the rough ground where it would be built. Gerald announced that he had made a deal with a store in Seymour to market his wines, and a supply of bottles to be made by the old glassworks in Corydon who had done only decorative pieces for years before. Corks were another matter, and expensive, being imported. He'd had a good harvest of honey this year, and had just finished a batch of Mead.
Ronnie and Tara told how much work it saved to sell their cured meats and packaged herbs in Todd's store, rather than haul it to town each week. Tara had gotten a supply of cut paper from the newspaper printer, some of the bounty from the train cars. That meant that paper for making envelopes was no longer a problem for them, and they shared the work with Joann Wilson who needed them for their garden seeds. They were working out a process to make this go faster.
Business had dropped off dramatically at Todd's store when the weather turned cold. That suited everyone fine for their own reasons. Wes and Larry had told Todd they wanted to keep a lot of the rail cars goods for future income, and Todd had other business to attend to. His imported ammunition and Mike's reloads were selling well, along with goods produced by the neighbors here on the ridge. There was still regular demand for flour, cornmeal, salt and spices, cured meat products, and some clothing. Todd had all the business he wanted, and was making more money on trades than cash sales. He'd had to hire Matthew and Charlie Allen to build on to the store for room to house the goods he acquired in trading.
Mel and Charlie were doing well selling food at the store and at Brent Collins' Saturday market, although trade there had slowed down, too, after fuel prices rose again. Vickie Hoskins had all she wanted to do tending new mothers like Emily and occasional injuries. She expressed thanks that there had been no outbreaks of disease in the area which she attributed to less contact between people.
Ed Wilson had a new crop of calves from last Spring that were growing fast, and all the leather business he could handle. Bob Clemmons had expressed an interest in doing leather work, so Ed had hired him to help on a piecework basis. Bob was learning fast, and Ed was glad for the help. He had bought out an old shoe repair shop in town, and was in the process of moving the equipment to his place. Mike had helped him figure out how to arrange powered machines along a wall to be run by a lineshaft with a small gas engine outside.
The group began to make split up as the sky darkened and snow came down heavier, beginning to accumulate on the ground. When Todd's family got home, Sophia looked for something to do and found Christopher listening to the shortwave radio. He was busily writing notes when she came in. He put down the pencil and looked up.
Sophia asked, "What's up?"
Chris said, "Dad's not gonna like this." _____________
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Post by kaijafon on Nov 10, 2013 17:09:56 GMT -6
as I read all the wonderful things happening to them, I couldn't help but think about "the other shoe dropping".... can't wait to find out what is going on.
thank you!!
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Post by patience on Nov 11, 2013 9:54:20 GMT -6
Chapter 73, cont'd.
"Turn on the TV. Let's see if it's made the news yet," Todd said.
Sophia turned on their 12 volt TV. The 6:00 o'clock news had some Louisville politician talking about fuel rationing and how it would affect bus service. In a few minutes they began to recap the story about US and Canadian oil well output dropping faster than expected. A video clip from Washington DC had the newly appointed Energy Czar telling that we must conserve our oil supplies to assure national security, so fuel rations to government stations were being cut to half what they had been. "They're lying," Chris said. "The guy on the shortwave said that a bunch of Texas wells had gone dry this month and the Canadian tar sands had some kind of problem with water supply, whatever that means. But he said it would cut our oil supply by 2/3 or more. He was afraid they would try to pump what's left too fast and kill a lot more wells."
Alicia said, "That is going to kill the country. Imported oil is going to be higher than ever now and we couldn't afford it before this."
Todd didn't say anything, but went to the computer and pulled up the government site that gave international oil and natural gas prices. "West Texas Intermediate crude was $268 a few days ago when I looked. It's showing at $486 a barrel now. We have a problem."
Alicia turned off the TV. It got quiet for a moment while everybody was thinking. Then Christopher said, "We need more horses. If we're going to farm, and diesel fuel goes up a lot more, it will cost too much to run the tractor."
Todd was thinking a mile a minute. Finally he said, "We have to get that sawmill running on wood gas. That will give us wood to run that old truck on wood gas, and Mike can convert some small engines to run on it, too. The problem is going to be finding enough stainless steel material to build the gasifiers. We can probably get that done, but grain harvest is what worries me. They said something on TV about assuring that the military and agriculture would have priority for fuel rations, but that could mean anything. We have enough diesel on hand to do our harvest this year, but I doubt if many farmers have any extra right now. This is going to drive food prices out of sight." ______________
Ed had seen the news on TV. He told Joann, "They are going to screw this up like they do everything else. It's going to be a long cold winter, even for the people that heat with natural gas, because when oil goes up, so does gas. It doesn't make much sense to me, but that's what happens every time."
Joann said, "They said they would put controls on food prices, but that won't work. It will just mean shortages in the stores and black market food will cost more. It happened the last time they did that."
Ed nodded slowly. "That means we will probably be in the black market selling beef. I hate to see that coming." _____________
When Ed and Ronnie Nichols talked the next day, they agreed that they would have to keep a low profile when they sold beef and pork. "I can do most of the farming without fuel," Ronnie said. "It means we'll have to do some things different but I still need fuel to grind feed and I don't have that much on hand. It's going to be tough year." _____________
Kate said, "I'm glad we didn't tell anybody about that tank car full of diesel fuel. Before the year's out, people will be fighting over fuel."
"It's next Spring that worries me," Larry said. "We're right back where we were when fuel went up the first time."
Wes nodded and said, "Yeah, even doing all we can with the oxen this winter, we'll have to use some of that tank car diesel to get by. And people are going to wonder where we got the fuel. This will start some real trouble." ____________
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Post by patience on Nov 11, 2013 17:56:31 GMT -6
Chapter 73, cont'd.
As a farmer, Terry Townsend was doing okay. He had cut back his grain production to just enough to feed his few head of pigs and chickens, the rest of his land being in hay and pasture. That reduced the time needed to work the farm and allowed him to spend most of each day at the Sheriff's office.
But as the County Sheriff, he was worried. The fuel situation was critical and getting worse. Everyone had bought all the fuel they could before the ration cuts took effect, and now they were short on fuel and broke besides. He remembered the last time that fuel went way up, and this looked even worse. People had done all they could think of to cope with high prices for everything. They had moved whole families in together just to survive. They raised gardens, sold or traded off anything they could, and done without a lot of things, even enough food. Some had starved and others got sick and died. Desperate people turned to stealing, and some got killed trying it, both thieves and victims. Terry had thought that when he took the job as Sheriff that the worst was over. The Mayor had said so, and everyone agreed that those who had survived that first hard winter would make it from there. Crime had died down and some things had improved, but that was all history. He hoped the town could survive this winter. The worst part for townspeople was the high cost of heating a place to live. Gas and electric were the only choices for most people. A few had wood stoves, but the cost of firewood was right up there with the rest now. It cost too much to haul it to town, and those who had chain saws that still worked were thinking about how long they could keep them going to supply their own firewood. Terry expected crime to flare up again, and he only had one deputy. ______________ "We have enough money now," Gloria said, "but what about next year? People won't be able to afford to buy anything with gas and diesel so high. It's going to shut down business all over. We won't be able to sell anything at all."
Ashley shook her head and said, "I don't know. This just has me lost."
Larry said, "We can't farm like we have been and expect to make a profit. At lunchtime today, the TV said gas was $28 a gallon and diesel was $32.40. We can't afford to start the tractor unless it will make us 30 bucks an hour or more."
Kate was thinking back to her childhood when she said, "We have to look at how people did things a long time ago. We have already changed how we live to something like what I knew as a kid, when we looked forward to a weekly trip to town, and people grew most of what they ate. We may have to go back farther than that now, like before there was any such thing as electricity and cars and trucks. I can't think of any other way to do it. We can't buy more than 5 gallons of gas a month under the new rationing, unless they decide to give us more for farming. And that will cost $140! We just can't do it. We need some horses if we're going to be able to make it now."
Wes said, "All the Amish have figured that out by now and I bet you couldn't buy a horse for any price...."
He was interrupted by knocking on the door. Neal Davis was there with his wife when Ashley answered the door. "We didn't hear you drive up," she said.
"That's because we walked. Can't afford gas now, so we won't be going much of any place."
"Well come in and get warm. The coffee pot is hot."
Wes pulled some more chairs from the kitchen table to the living room and offered his to the company. Neal sat down and said, "You said you didn't want to sell much more stuff now, but what about trading some of it off?"
"Depends on what somebody wants to trade, I guess," Wes said.
"How about horses? The Amish man over north of us came by today on his way home from town and said he heard we had winter clothes and some other things they needed. They don't get out much either, now, with prices so high, and they need about everything. He allowed as how we might want some horses since we are living pretty much like they do now, and he and his neighbors have some to trade. They bought up a bunch of riding horses cheap when everything went bad, and they've been breeding the biggest ones to their Belgian stud. Says there is maybe 15 or 16 head they could sell amongst their community."
Kate said, "Well, I'll be! We were just talking about horses. Oxen are fine for heavy work, but they have no speed to them."
Neal went on, "See, I don't have everything they need, and I thought maybe we could get together and make a deal with them. I'd like to have a team to work. I grew up with Grandpaw's horses, and I haven't forgot everything I knew about 'em."
Larry said, "I think we still owe you for that big generator, don't we? We can work it out. I vote we do this."
Gloria said, "It sounds to me like the answer to a prayer."
Several heads nodded agreement, then Kate said, "Okay, that's settled. We have a big pot of beef stew on the stove, so you all better stay for supper and help us with it, or we'll be eating it all week." _______________
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Post by patience on Nov 12, 2013 10:11:50 GMT -6
CHAPTER 74 January, 2017-2018
Europe's population had fallen to a tenth of what it had been at the peak. The village settlements, developed centuries before, were where most of the survivors lived now. They farmed the tiny fields around them, often digging them by hand, and eked out an existence, wasting nothing. The lucky ones had the better water supplies, mostly from ancient wells and mountain runoff. The major cities had succumbed one after another to lack of trade, the cost of the energy needed to maintain them, and failing water and sewage systems that brought disease. The few who lived in cities were scavengers and a few business people that exploited the old tradition of cities as the centers of trade.
Fiat money systems had collapsed entirely, with only gold-backed currencies surviving in Germany and the UK. The super rich had retreated from London, Brussels, and Basel to enclaves in the mountainous regions where they existed less luxuriously, matching the 18th century level of world trade that they still exploited for support.
When their oil supplies had failed,Russians survived the way they always had, in spite of crushing despotic governments and the harsh climate. China had lost more than 3/4 of it's people to starvation. After repeated rebellions, China had reverted to its' previous feudal state with warlords ruling areas defined by geography as they had for centuries. Central governments could not get a foothold in either country, with no ready means of transportation to assert their power.
The US still had a central government of sorts, roughly similar to what had existed 200 years before. The rapid loss of taxation and purchasing ability for critical fuel and food had caused mass desertions from the once world class military forces. That left the US a toothless tiger that made some roaring noises, but nobody paid much attention. The US nuclear arsenal was more or less intact, but much of the support systems, most importantly the operational expertise, was fast dwindling away leaving it useless. It had all happened too fast for the once powerful to react.
What military might remained in the world was focused on the Mideast and its' rich oil supplies, as China, Russia, and the rest of Asia duked it out over dwindling supplies. The unfortunate result was a highly radioactive area that would never have the oil extracted by anyone. Kuwait had ceased to exist after US military support had gone away. Saudi Arabia had fulfilled the prophetic saying of the old Sheik, "My grandfather rode a camel, my father rode a camel, I drive a Mercedes, my son drives a Land Rover, his son will drive a Land Rover, but his son will ride a camel."
There were still a few very rich Arabs who now lived in scattered areas of Africa, having escaped with quantities of gold before the wars had begun. They lived much as their forebears had done, on the edges of the desert. ____________
Some ridiculous vestiges of world trade showed up in rusting hulks of container ships in harbors when they were plundered by the last survivors of those port cities. Most of what they found was left to degrade in the elements, anything other than food or weapons being relatively useless for day to day survival.
Another year went by, marked mostly by the silence of starvation in the US, interrupted by clashes of violence, but those became fewer as time went by. _____________
Terry Townsend's hair had turned white in the past year, although he had just seen his 40th birthday. He had been able to do virtually nothing while his town had become a battleground for a short time as people fought over the scraps of a once great civilization. Less than a tenth of the original inhabitants remained, and sometimes the stench of the dead still caused him to retch. His office had been attacked, although he wasn't there at the time. His farm had also been attacked by the same mob, but they had run out of strength and ammunition at the same time and fell to the defense by him and his neighbors. Wes Blake, Larry Barnes, Neal Davis and their wives, along with others had helped in the defense and had hopefully secured the neighborhood once and for all. Larry Barnes had been wounded, but was recovering. Neal Davis had not survived. His widow had moved in with the Blakes. He assumed they would merge their 2 farms. ______________
Todd Reynolds had nightmares regularly about the mob attack on his store. He knew his son would never be quite the same, nor would Sophia. The look in their eyes was always distant now.
They had been returning from running their trapline when the attack took place and had the advantage of surprise on the attackers. Chris and Sophia had dropped one after another of the mob with the lever action rifles, forcing the attack into panicked retreat. If any survived to tell about it, they were never seen again. The fact that Todd knew most of the attackers was what gave him nightmares. Their faces were never far from his mind.
Christopher spent a lot of time with Sophia close by, not speaking but always touching. _____________
Ed Wilson was still nursing the wound in his lower leg. Joann had told Vickie Hoskins that she knew he was on the mend because he was cranky as an old bear. Ed was up and getting around on a crutch he had cut out of a dead sapling. Mike had been caring for his cattle and Laura had worked with them to keep a supply firewood. _____________
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Post by patience on Nov 12, 2013 13:22:40 GMT -6
CHAPTER 75 Spring, 2018
Benjamin Carter Reynolds had just turned 2 years old and learned the word "no". He used it constantly like most his age, trying to assert himself as a person in a world of adults. His 5 year old brother Logan got exasperated with him, as did Alicia, but it was a minor aggravation to her thinking. The fact that they were alive and healthy was always uppermost in her mind. She silently gave prayers of thanks every day since the attack on their place. She had fought like an angry mother bear for her offspring, and killed her share. Weapons had not been out of her reach since that day.
Todd's team of horses and the new filly colt got attention lavished on them as members of the family. Since they had closed the store, Todd spent a lot of time with them when he wasn't with his wife and children. The horses gave him some silent reassurance he needed. Christopher and Sophia had been inseparable since the attack. When they laid down together late that night, nobody had said a word about it. They had slept together since then, not talking much to anyone else for months. As the weather warmed again, they seemed to thaw along with it and began to seem more like their old selves again, but they were never apart for very long. ______________
The partnership of the Blake and Davis farms was never even discussed, but accepted as a tacit agreement among the members of the combined households. Olivia Davis and Kate were the oldest of friends and spent every day together doing homely tasks that kept the hard working younger members fed, clothed, and cared for.
Larry's left arm wasn't what it used to be after recovering from a wound, but it didn't seem to bother him much. He showed a new devotion to Kate after she had nursed him through some days of fever and pain. Wes and Ashley had enough to do with 5 year old Ella and a her sister Savannah Jane, now 2 years old. The toddler got into everything and quickly got nicknamed Calamity Jane.
Gloria was thrilled beyond words to find herself pregnant, and Larry was proud to finally have the start of his own family. The old Davis home was now a bunkhouse for hired help that had migrated from the mostly defunct town to find any sort of work. The 4 men quartered there were of all ages from 17 to over 50, each having the resilient nature that had kept them alive so far. They were glad to work for their keep and some kind of security, but the Blakes and Barnes were more generous than that and earned their loyalty over time. _______________
Once the European sponsored gold backing for the US dollar was gone, it floundered for a few months but had stabilized, being backed now by the gold in Fort Knox and exchangeable for newly minted gold coins at $20,000 per ounce. Trade between states was going on again, but at much lower levels due to the cost of freight, although some new coal fired, steam river boats promised to bring down shipping costs. Illinois had finally restored a small oil refinery near the Indiana border and traded it's lucrative output for what it needed. Indiana had a small coal conversion plant just started up that produced a limited amount of gasoline, patterned after an earlier plant in West Virginia. That product, however, was being shipped by barge downriver, and gasoline for Indiana came from West Virginia, also by riverboat. ________________
Larry had found they could run their old pickup on straight naptha from the tank car by retarding the timing somewhat. It tended to produce to knocking, but they cured that by adding a slight amount of kerosene which increased the power output, but made it very hard to start in cold weather. They didn't use it much anyway, mostly relying on horse drawn transportation now. The fuel was used primarily in small engines for water pumping and running a vacuum pump for their milking system, scavenged from a burned out dairy farm. One of their hired hands made the daily milk run to a new neighborhood store with a team and wagon, bringing home any trade goods from the day before and whatever money they earned.
Diesel engines ran well on the purified kerosene from the other tank car. It didn't produce as much power, but it didn't go sour in the tank, either, and starting was easier with a little added naptha. They were still able to operate their combine for grain harvest, but it was on its' last legs. Larry and Wes had been busy all winter working on it, using whatever parts came to hand to make it run one more season of wheat harvesting. Their corn crops were all picked by hand now to save wear on the combine. When the combine could no longer be made to run, the alternative was hand gathering and threshing. The men were working on a stationary thresher design for that day. ______________
At Brent Collins' farm, a somewhat abbreviated Saturday market day continued. Bicycles, teams of horses pulling wagons, and handcarts were more plentiful than gasoline or diesel powered vehicles. Todd showed up with a team and wagon loaded with goods from their neighborhood, and did a modest amount of trading.
Mel and Charlie were there as always, offering hot meals. Mel had begun to be sociable again after the attack on Todd's store. He had been in a funk for months afterward because it was over before he could get there to help, being some distance away at the time. Vickie had badgered him into continuing the food business to give him something to do.
Wes, Larry, and their families had set up on a farm wagon selling their wares along with some craft items their hired hands had made. Gloria and Ashley made the rounds of the market, visiting and shopping.
Ed Wilson was there, gimping around with a limp on his bad leg, but taking orders for boots and dried beef. Joann did a lively business selling garden seeds and tending the herb sales for Tara who was expecting again and had stayed home. Terry Townsend asked Ed to measure him for new boots. While Ed traced his foot on a piece of leather, Terry said, "Looks like business is picking up again this Spring."
Ed looked around at the crowd and said, "Yeah, mebbe so. I wondered if it would. We all hit bottom so many times I doubted things would come back."
Joann said, "I heard that, Ed Wilson! Things are looking up again and you know it. There's no call to be down about things. After all, when you get to the bottom, the only direction left is up!"
Ed looked up and grinned at her and said, "Yes Maam!"
The whole crowd had heard her outburst and looked their direction, then gave a hearty laugh at his reply, sharing the couple's feeling to the core. The sun seemed to shine a little brighter then, as did the smiling faces in the crowd.
Life was going on, and it wasn't all bad.
THE END _________________
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Post by patience on Nov 12, 2013 13:27:33 GMT -6
Okay, time for a critique. I write for my own amazement and to clarify my thinking about our possible future. I do, however, want it to be as good a read as possible, and try to better my skills at it. Whatever thoughts anyone has on the story would be much appreciated, good, bad, or indifferent. It will help guide me to make the next tale better.
Thanks for reading!
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Post by kaijafon on Nov 12, 2013 17:00:45 GMT -6
I thoroughly enjoyed the story even though it is a very real possible future. I have been thinking a lot about the things that have happened and wonder how well this small group would have done without the train goodies. But in a real world situation, chances are that something like that could happen.
How much does a person really need? it seemed that they just needed thing after thing after thing. Lot's to think about. I'm trying to put myself in the same situation. Could I grow enough food to feed myself and family? Could I protect that food against those who would steal it? How? etc...
If I counted right, the story spanned several years....five? or was it more? In that time, "nature" would have been beginning to be seen as reclaiming land and roads.
With such a decrease of population, I would think that the wildlife would have made a comeback, which would help nourish those left.
anyways, just a few thoughts. Thank you so much for such a great story that really made me do some deep thinking. I really appreciate it. Even bought more heirloom seeds because of it. lol!
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Post by patience on Nov 12, 2013 18:28:58 GMT -6
That's what I want to do, is stimulate thinking toward self reliance, so that is a hearty compliment!
Yes, it spans ten years, from early 2008 (just before the banking crisis) to spring of 2018. Yes, nature began early to take back her own. Wes noted that the interstate seemed narrower, then noticed the ditches and banks had not been mowed and were growing tall. Could do a lot more with that.
The last chapters need a lot of work. The mob attacks on the Sheriff's place and on Todd's store were not well enough defined to make a lot of sense. I'll reread and see what I can do with it in a couple days. And, per other suggestions, have a look at the situation from Wes' point of view at the end.
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Post by jackofva on Nov 13, 2013 18:37:19 GMT -6
Enjoyed your story - nicely done.
In the late 1800's, about half the work force was employed in agriculture. Without diesel or other petroleum products, and without fertilizer, food storage, shipment, etc., I imagine that ratio would be approximately true in your story environment as well. One farm family's surplus production is sufficient to support only one town/city family.
Steam powered rail should be workable - there are coal mines in southern IL and IN as I recall and there are probably enough steam museums to pull together a few locomotives and rolling stock for small scale transportation of coal for heating and some essential goods.
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Post by patience on Nov 13, 2013 19:37:46 GMT -6
Thanks! Yes, that's what I envisioned, something like a return to the late 1800's if they were fortunate to keep enough assets workable to make that happen. Re-starting manufacturing would be a nightmare. That's where I spent most of my life in engineering. There is very little left of skilled trades in the US now. what we have in engineering is not inventiveness, nor even a lot of creativity, but a computerization of basic processes that were invented a century ago. Almost no one knows the basics now, so that would have to be reinvented. A lot of heavy equipment would be destroyed in the process.
Anyone know any steam engineers? I don't mean the guy in the striped cap that drove a locomotive, but someone who can design a boiler that won't come apart at the seams and take out half the town. That is the problem if we truly do collapse.
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Post by jackofva on Nov 13, 2013 20:30:02 GMT -6
My undergrad degree is in electrical engineering. There are things that would make recovery more difficult and those that would make it easier.
The difficult things are: 1) The "easy" oil, coal, copper, etc. are gone. Col. Drake hit oil in Pennsylvania at around 80 feet if I recall correctly. Those days are long gone, as are copper mines where you can find pound size copper nuggets with a shovel. 2) As Arthur C. Clarke said "any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic." In this context, our existing technology is essentially unrepairable without our current technological base. And that technological base has both a minimum size and a long tail of supporting technologies, that in many cases interact.
The good things are: 1) Knowledge, at least in the form of books, exists so that we know what works and what doesn't work. We don't have to start over wondering what the relationship between a moving magnet and a coil of copper wire is. That knowledge won't evaporate. However, the technology that goes with that knowledge is highly perishable because it depends on a long chain of support, suppliers, trade secrets, etc. That support chain depends upon skilled workers and if they are forced into spending their time growing food - or worse yet have a high die-off rate - it will take a long time to recover.
If I can put my hands on a couple of boiler design handbooks stashed on one of my basement bookshelves, along with my strength of materials textbook, I believe I could design a safe boiler -- not something with 600 or 1200 lb pressure and superheater, but certainly something of the performance of the late 1890's, but safer. However, putting my hands on the proper steel and the equipment to roll sheets into the drum, and the like would be more difficult. It can be done, of course, with a leapfrog process. Start with a small donkey boiler to power a few tools, use that to build better tools so that a better steam plant can be made, repeat cycle as necessary. Without access to known quality steel, etc., you have to fall back upon what the early Victorian engineers did -- overbuild everything. That wasn't adequate in every case, as a casual reading of the history of engineering will demonstrate, but it's a starting point at least.
Jules Verne's Mysterious Island is worth reading in this regard - he takes great artistic liberties in the novel, of course, but it's the story of a small number of castaways who escape Richmond VA during the last stages of the Civil War in a balloon and wind up on an uncharted Pacific Island. One of the castaways is a Union Army officer who is also an engineer and Verne lays out with some accuracy what they are able to build with his knowledge and experience. A copy can be found on the Project Gutenberg site as well as other places. I think I first read it at around 11 or 12 years of age and periodically re-read it, as it's a well told story.
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Post by patience on Nov 14, 2013 7:49:47 GMT -6
Excellent insights! Yes, I think it could be done as you said, to begin with the technical books we have and the leftovers of our society, then begin to build something again. It depends on how much is lost, of those skills, process knowledge, and supply chains. I see the practical skills as being scarce today and also the supply chains as being very vulnerable, because the supply lines are so complex and interdependent as to almost defy description. Today I can enter an order online, or make a phone call and have what I want delivered to the door or dock within a day or two. If that were not possible, it would be pretty hard for me to set up and pour a hunk of bronze, for example, to make a bushing although I have everything to do the subsequent machine work. Even though I have poured aluminum castings at home in an oil fired furnace, reaching the higher temps for copper and bronze isn't easy without natural gas. Knowing when to add the tin, lead and zinc, to keep the zinc from burning out of the melt is only one problem. Finding suitable sand to make a mold that can produce a sound casting, learning to ram up a good mold that won't either collapse or erupt molten metal, those are things that have been mechanized and automated to the point of losing the skills almost entirely. Those skills, once all in the heads of a few "molders", are now scattered through a series of process engineers with expertise in only portions of the process. One guy knows sand, another knows mechanical mold ramming and moisture content, and maybe binders, and another knows casting defects and maybe metal chemistry. Very few know the old tricks like degassing an aluminum melt by immersing potatoes (!!) in the melt. I think we would quickly devolve to about 1850 technology or lower, for the above reasons. I'd say that we'd be fortunate to have Babbitt bearings, mediocre cast iron, and blacksmith level metal work, if we fall far enough to have major industries shut down for a few years. If the rest of the world keeps going, then no problem. We could work from their suppliers. This idea is worth exploring in its' own story, I think, with something like an EMP attack that takes us to a grid-down situation. Some of my favorite stories are from reality, where very sharp people made successful bootstrap efforts to achieve surprising results. TRUE STORY here, reported in Hot Rod Magazine at the time: In the late 1950's, or early 1960's, an old fellow from Australia brought a home built motorcycle to the Bonneville Salt Flats for a land speed record run. There was some problem about not being entered on time, but after a test run to assure the old guy wouldn't kill himself, they let him run. With a small engine he'd built mostly from scratch, he hit a record speed for the class of over 200 MPH in one direction. On the required return run for the speed record, he blew a connecting rod and so failed to have an official record. The good part was, this guy had built his own metal lathe in the outback, using an old Model T transmission on a wood bed faced with angle iron, then used that to machine his parts from hand forged scrap metal. Upon leaving the speed record attempt, he was heard to mutter something about "Knew I should have used a Fordson front spindle for that connecting rod". Just gotta love a guy who can do what he did. But, if I wrote it in a fiction tale, nobody would believe it!
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Post by jackofva on Nov 14, 2013 9:15:30 GMT -6
Lindsay Publications - now not in business as the owner retired - specialized in publishing reprints of exactly the sort of late 1800's books needed to reboot an industrial base. I have many of them in my personal library, including some on steam engineering and machine shop work as practiced in the late 1800's.
Lindsay also published new material and Dave Gingery wrote several books along the lines you mention, e.g. building your own bandsaw, lathe, etc. (I built a radio coil winder from Gingery's book and found it usable, but not up to the standards of the 1930's Morris Industries coil winder as he substituted a friction drive for gears and hence it was impossible to establish the fixed pitch to length ratio required for certain type coils.) Dave is no longer with us, but I think his son, also named Dave Gingery is selling his father's books.
I've built one desktop Stirling engine from bar stock and learned a great deal about machining from the errors I made. Mostly, though, I work in electronics these days, with a post-retirement business of making kits and assembled accessories for amateur radio operators.
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Post by papaof2 on Nov 14, 2013 10:32:27 GMT -6
There are a few pieces of older practices that we could pick up with just a little knowledge: leather work (boots, shoes, saddles, harness) and wooden wagons and farm implements. You would need to be able to tan leather (brain tanning? plant materials tanning?), cut and shape leather, cut and shape wood and know which hides and which woods are best for which uses (such as ash for ax handles, etc). You would need to be able to identify the type of wood.
Making clothes from available fabric is much easier than making fabric. Can you grow & process cotton or raise sheep for wool? Can you spin thread and weave cloth? Do you have or know someone with a spinning wheel or loom? Do you know someone who can build one? We have the Singer treadle sewing machine that belonged to my wife's grandmother - including extra needles and bobbins and an unused belt - so could do clothing repairs and make new clothing if fabric were available (yes, I can sew - from replacing a pocket in my favorite work jeans to hemming a skirt for a Pilgrim costume for one of the kids).
Some of this info would be available in books of and about the time period (both technical and fiction). If not, it would be learned the way the first builders did - trial and error.
To work leather or wood, you would need the proper tools and the ability to sharpen them, but there should be plenty of materials available in the form of otherwise useless motor vehicles. The blacksmith would make a comeback, as few would know how to heat and form metal. Concrete isn't the best abrasive for sharpening steel, but there's a lot of it. I'd expect good hacksaw blades to be a valuable commodity it you're making your own tools. There's probably work for someone with layout skills to determine the fewest cuts needed for making a finished product.
Water power would be viable where there is enough running water. Seasonal water sources might be harnessed if a pond/lake were dug (need more than human diggers if it's very big). Overshot water wheels might be the simplest to implement. Some designs are more efficient than others, but there would likely be a limit on how complex a device could be produced by a novice. A water wheel would work best if mounted with decent bearings -perhaps the crankshaft and main bearings from a four cylinder inline engine?
Root cellars and springhouses would replace the refrigerator. Earthenware evaporative bowls would replace the cooler full of ice for smaller things. None of them would be the 38F or so of your current fridge, but every degree of temperature drop adds a little to the life of the products stored there.
I still have a Lindsay Publications catalog from several years ago and there are some dog-eared pages for books I'll now probably never be able to get :-(
Sent from my IdeaTabA2109A using proboards
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Post by patience on Nov 14, 2013 11:15:03 GMT -6
I don't have Lindsay's books on radio or electronics, but I have most of the rest of them. Vince Gingery is Dave's son, and also a writer. I have most of their books, too.
My library includes The Handbook of Chemistry and Physics, Henley's Formula's, Machinery's Handbook in several editions, Marks' Standard Handbook for Mechanical Engineers, Tool Engineer's Handbook, Modern Welding, and a host of others in agriculture, herbals, and references on pottery and textile arts. It would take a lot more than that, but it is available as long as libraries remain intact. Probably the greatest tragedy in history was when the library at Alexandria was burned because of some d!psh!t invaders.
But I think the greatest resource of all is the natural creativity that gets beat out of our kids in public schools with their read-and-regurgitate liberal BS programs. If we can educate and encourage that creativity, we can assure our future.
I want to see fewer specialists and more creative generalists.
"A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects."— Robert Heinlein, Time Enough for Love
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Post by patience on Nov 14, 2013 14:26:34 GMT -6
Moderators may want to move this to Completed Stories. Thanks.
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scout
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Post by scout on Dec 17, 2013 18:52:34 GMT -6
Patience, you write well enough to inspire marathon reading sessions. Well done.
As for suggestions, I thought it strange that there was almost nothing about injuries from accidents by those engaged in unfamiliar tasks. Like house fires by those using new ways to heat or light their homes, or people being poisoned from bad canning practices, eating spoiled food, etc. Every trade has its hazards and farming the old fashioned way has more than a few. Falling trees (for firewood) can go the wrong way and break legs, arms and sometimes kill. Those new to chopping wood sometime chop their foot. People new to milking sometimes get kicked or stepped on by cows. Also in high stress situations people are more likely to have accidents.
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Post by papaof2 on Dec 17, 2013 23:29:53 GMT -6
Tree-cutting accidents happen to even experienced people. A man and his father at our church did a lot of tree work on the side. They were limbing a tree and had the limb they were working on roped to catch it. The balance of the limb turned out to be different than what they expected and the limb hit the tree hard enough to knock the man out of the tree and the limb then came on down and crushed his head. People with years of experience, not someone relatively new to tree work.
I've taken down some small trees (less than 20 feet tall), but (other than some lollipop-shaped pines with no branches for the first 30 feet) I wouldn't consider tackling the big trees in my yard. A 40-50 foot oak, poplar or maple needs to be at least partially limbed before it comes down. I've spent $$$ on tree service over the years, but they earned it because they had to educate me on why they did things in certain ways. I'm not about to climb up with a chainsaw, but I could give fair directions to someone younger ;-) If you want a tree crew enthusiastic about taking down your tree on a miserably cold day, just set up a kerosene heater on the porch and have a big pot of coffee and some Krispy Kreme donuts available ;-) When they were back (on a much nicer day) to do other work a couple of years later, one of them said "You're the guy that had coffee and donuts."
Kids also get in trouble with tools. My wife's brother (at age 5 or so) chopped into a toe when he tried to chop wood like his grandfather had done. The grandkids didn't visit often and the axe wasn't normally put away. I think there might be a lot of similar accidents. Not to mention kids running and playing and running into a farming implement or a barbed wire fence.
Definitely more fires from heating and lighting. Even the people who have fire extinguishers now probably don't have a large stock of them (we have one in the kitchen and one by the fireplace). In a SHTF situation, extinguishers would be a one-time-use item. In that circumstance, how would you replace an extinguisher or get one recharged?
When we moved to the current house, it took several months to find a screen that fit the fireplace in the family room - not a lot of 48" x 31" firebox openings out there... How many people would build too big a fire or stack an unstable group of logs?
Having seen a glass jar "explode" when it hit the tile floor in the kitchen (found pieces 8 feet away from the point of impact), I can imagine the chaos of a lit oil lamp being dropped there. Don't think it likely that many people would have an all brass Aladdin lamp available (go check the price at lehmans.com ).
Sent from my IdeaTabA2109A using proboards
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Post by patience on Dec 18, 2013 17:23:21 GMT -6
Thanks for the input!
True, I didn't put in any accidents of those sorts. They do happen. I wrote what I live around today. The rural folks here virtually all own chainsaws (more than one each) and most of the rural population does at least some heating with wood. Those who did not grow up this way WILL hurt themselves, no doubt. I cut a finger badly when I was butchering a beef once. I cleaned it, doused it with antibiotic cream, put on butterfly bandages and a splint to keep from flexing the cut, then wrapped it in gauze and electrical tape and went back to cutting meat because it had to be done. I have scars all over, but I've led a risky life compared to many.
Yes, I should have talked about the injuries. It just never entered my head, because it pretty much goes with the territory and nobody thinks about it much.
Personally, I only know of one guy who got hurt logging in the last 30 years or so. He misjudged a tree he was limbing up on the ground, it rolled somewhat and fell on his leg. He was stuck there until the skidder guy came back for another log. They used the loader to lift the log off him and dragged him out. He asked for somebody to hand him a piece of bark nearby that he used to splint his leg, tying it with his belt. They loaded him in the bucket of the skid steer loader and hauled him out of the woods. He was past 60 when this happened so he healed up a little slower, but he was going again the next season.
The fires around here are from electrical failures, not wood stoves. Kerosene lamps are a DEFINITE hazard! A spilled lantern started the Great Chicago Fire, IIRC. But, I grew up with kerosene lamps and it was never a problem then. It would be NOW, with a bunch of newbies doing it.
Way back when I was a kid, the fire extinguisher was the drinking bucket with the dipper in it on the kitchen counter, and the hot water tank on the back of the kitchen wood range. I didn't see a modern style fire extinguisher until I started school, and that was the old soda blaster water tank style.
Yeah, anyone in a new environment is going to be a hazard. The country kids have been raised to understand the risks and don't do that sort of thing. It was a common joke to get a bunch of kids to hold hands and then the troublemaker would touch an electric fence. The kid on the end of the line got nailed. Nobody ever forgot that lesson, nor made the mistake again. Rural upbringings were harsh back then, but effective. Sorry I didn't tell more about those things. I should have.
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Post by teedee on Jan 19, 2014 12:09:45 GMT -6
That was a wonderful story. I found lots to be believable. I must admit that I am getting tired of the shoot um ups where half of the folks were special forces. The train find was not very believable but it was interesting in what you placed there for them to find. The global elite trying to take over again and again was very believable and I especially liked when you listed the presidents that they had removed as I have felt that to be true for some time. Anyway thanks for all your hard work. I liked it a lot.
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Post by windchime on Aug 5, 2014 17:27:24 GMT -6
Thanks Patience - that was a wonderful story!
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s2man
New Member
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Post by s2man on Dec 14, 2014 17:00:52 GMT -6
Another fine story, Patience. I was looking for something to read and remembered the links you sent me, a while back. You don't just write stories, but fill them with farming and prep'ing knowledge and how-to's.
I've spent three days devouring this story. Now, I am on to your next one.
BTW, if your characters are collecting pre-1964 coins, I will buy all of their '64's ;-)
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